Between a rock and a hard place

If you were an ANC politician, would you now support President Zuma or oppose him? Remember you are probably incompetent and poorly qualified, and owe your huge salary to your political connections with the ruling faction of the ANC.

If you lost your political job, you probably could not get one elsewhere. If you opposed him and he won, you’d be out. If you supported him and he lost, you’d be out.

In December, when the ANC meets to choose its new leader, this will be the only thing on the minds of delegates. Politics, ideology, transformation, white monopoly power, Marxist-Leninist analysis – none of these matter. Only one thing matters: “How do I keep my job?”

Last Tuesday, The Citizen reported a respected commentator saying of Pravin Gordhan “the finance minister was influential and it would not be easy to remove him from his post”.

Zuma removed him a few days later, under damaging circumstances and offering unbelievable reasons.

Zuma has long been trying to get rid of Gordhan and “capture” the Treasury. Some say his brutal cabinet reshuffle was “reckless”; others say it was part of a careful plan.

Why has he done it? There are two main theories. The first is corruption. Zuma wants to pack the Treasury with cronies so that they can do corrupt deals through the state-owned enterprises and collect enormous bribes.

The leading conspiracy is a corrupt deal with Russia on nuclear power. This is a huge embarrassment to me since I believe in nuclear power as the safest, most economic electricity source, and the Russians build good reactors.

Nobody will give me evidence of a deal except that “somebody I know told somebody else of a secret phone call between a mysterious Russian and a SA minister”. But the conspiracy is believed.

The second reason, more likely, is that Zuma wants to make most important ANC figures beholden to him so that he can control the outcome in December and get a sympathetic successor.

Powerful ANC grandees are criticising Zuma. Most ominous for him is Zweli Mkhize in the crucial province of KwaZulu-Natal. Some say Zuma is doomed.

Others say his careful, ruthless cunning has given him tight control of the ANC and he is secure.

I don’t know who is right.