Desperately seeking symbiosis

NOT ‘US’ AND ‘THEM Africa’s leapfrog potential is rapidly emerging as demographic trends retard other regions’ economic futures. South Africa needs to wake up and smell the

imphepho.

South Africa’s economic future is entwined with the rising tide of Africa’s socioeconomic reinvigoration as the world’s greying economies slide into inevitable stagnation. That’s a forecast of Klaus Schwab’s The Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Schwab argues Africa is poised to benefit immensely from the consequences of the ageing and declining populations of Europe, North and South America, the Caribbean, Asia (including China), southern India and some Middle East countries. The African Development Bank report, “Africa in 50 Years’ Time”, which predicted as early as 2011 a likely continental population of 3 billion by 2050, with 1.87 billion, or 74%, of its people of working age. Rising nationalistic sentiment across Europe and the United States has seen tightening immigration regulations. So instead of importing skilled labour as their youthful populations shrink in percentage terms, many firms have relocated operations to countries that have such labour.

In the past century, east Asia was the biggest beneficiary of this trend. Now, due to Asia’s own ageing populations, investors in manufacturing plants are eyeing Africa’s abundant labour and consumer markets.

Crucially, Africa possesses half of the world’s arable land. This will lead to massive investment in agriculture and the prospect of Africa feeding the whole world. This view is supported by the World Bank, which predicts that Africa’s agriculture and agribusiness markets are destined to top $1 trillion in 2030.

Schwab says autonomous vehicles, 3D printing, advanced robotics and new materials are likely to drive economic development. Africa will be the biggest beneficiary of these technologies.

Infrastructure development is another anticipated benefit. It will be in investors' best interests to establish partnerships with African governments.

By 2050, intra-African trade and growing, regional connectivity and investment will inevitably lead to freer labour movement, increasing the flow of remittances across African countries.

Along with unlocking Africa’s rich water potential, vast quantities of Africa’s rich mineral resources, including oil, will be unearthed, boosting trade. It is on this premise that I have absolutely no doubt that Africa is the future.

SA can become the biggest beneficiary of this – predicated on SA cultivating better relationships with other African countries, putting a stop to xenophobia, and ceasing to treat fellow Africans with arrogance and condescension. SA should actively use its Brics membership and access to the G8 to assert its role as a representative of and mouthpiece for the continent.

Dagada is a policy fellow at the Institute of Race Relations