All eyes on Gosden-trained Cracksman at Investec Derby
– Whether your tastes are lobster or jellied eels, champagne or beer, you’ll be accommodated at Epsom tomorrow, where the 238th Investec Derby, the greatest Flat race on the planet, will be watched by more than 500 million people around the world.
With 19 runners, the largest field since 2003, it is hard enough to predict who will start favourite for the richest Derby yet (£1.625m), let alone nominate the winner.
Statistics show that when Aidan O’Brien comes to Epsom, his classic team while solid, rarely boast a superstar, and once “the lads” ruled out dual Guineas hero Churchill, the trainer struggled to put his remaining entries in pecking order.
Ryan Moore rides Dee Stakes winner Cliffs Of Moher, who was no more than workmanlike at Chester, but O’Brien could still miss the bullseye.
Having nicked the 16-1 about CRACKSMAN early on, I’m sticking with John Gosden’s Blue Riband Trial winner who runs in the Golden Horn colours.
He was impressive when beating Permian in the dress-rehearsal here as Frankie Dettori got caught in a pocket in the straight, but Cracksman will improve for going up in distance, and, though Gosden is worried about his lack of experience, he still has a twinkle in his eye.
Previous course experience is always a plus on this unique racecourse- Gosden said that an American trainer’s first impression when he came over was that the world’s most famous race was being run on the side of a mountain – but that is what makes it the ultimate test of the thoroughbred.
From the 2400m start, the runners will climb 65m to the top of the hill and then turn left handed as they make the descent into Tattenham Corner.
Horses need to be able to cope with these undulations and also handle the camber up the straight, which Craven Stakes winner Eminent did remarkably well on his first excursion outside Newmarket at last month’s Breakfast With the Stars morning.
Forget Eminent’s sixth in the Guineas – a slow-run 1600m on fast ground did not play to his strengths – but he has an enormous stride and a potent finishing kick – he clocked 40mph (64kmh) in the last 600m in that workout – and now going up in trip he is worth a saver.
Martyn Meade, unfashionable but talented trainer of Eminent, boasts the best chance of a David victory over Goliath, with O’Brien running six, Gosden five and Godolphin four.
It is not unusual for O’Brien to win a classic with a second or even third, but his Chester Vase hero Venice Beach looks more of a St Leger horse and I prefer Best Solution and Glencadam Glory, who finished 1-2 in the Lingfield Trial, the runnerup having blown the start.
Permian, who has won twice since being pipped by Cracksman here in April, is owned by Sheikh Mohammed’s son but comes under the Godolphin banner – a la Lammtarra – but my prediction is 1 Cracksman, 2 Eminent, 3 Glencadam Glory, 4 Cliffs Of Moher.