Changing tack after disaster
As readers of this column will know, I called last week’s Springboks versus France test horribly wrong. I really expected the French to give the home team a tough match and while they started quickly, they were never really in the game after their opening try. I had taken France +7.5 points as my biggest bet of the weekend and was left licking my wounds and wondering where I had gone wrong.
A post on the Goodforthegame forum earlier in the week got me thinking, though. The poster was asking a question of “The Oracle”, whose weekly previews we put on the website. The Oracle, unlike myself, has been in cracking form and was all over the Boks on the minus handicap on Saturday. The forum poster asked the question whether The Oracle also bets on other markets, such as team and player points, as all of his tips are handicap or match result plays.
The post gave me food for thought. The Oracle is obviously making money with his current strategy and beating the handicap is clearly his strength. I would imagine, then, that his response would probably be that he focuses on where he is strong and does not get distracted by other bets that could potentially change his approach to games and thus prove costly.
On the flip side, I then asked myself where my strengths lie? Historically, I have proved quite strong at forecasting where the handicaps would be priced, but my record of picking handicaps is poor. Most of my money has been made on the total points lines where I enjoy looking at history, current form and even the weather to form an opinion.
That begs the question why my biggest bet of the weekend was on a handicap bet in area I am weak in? The answer is that I have lost discipline over the past few weeks and have started betting just for the sake of it. From Saturday, I will be betting less but, more importantly, focusing on markets where I have been successful in the past and sticking to my strengths.
Brent Graham is a sports betting blogger at
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