It’s My Turn will need luck
BAD DRAW AND NO SECOND RUN AFTER A LAYOFF COULD COUNT AGAINST SNAITH’S CHARGE Sari in Race 6 could be the best banker on a tricky card.
At last we have the final field with draws and weights for this year’s Vodacom Durban July. As it is the case every year this race not only attracts your regular race goers but also your once-a-year punter. Everybody is an expert and everybody will start making their own assessment as to who will win.
For myself, as a jockey, I naturally want to pick up the best available ride so my homework started quite a while ago. But even that does not mean we are on the horse we want to ride. It seems like this year I have changed my mind numerous times but sometimes all the indecision could work in your favour.
For example last year I had to wait for other jockeys to take their picks before I could ride The Conglomerate. Everything looked to be going wrong, especially after he landed up with the worst of the draw but guess what, we won the race.
This year I first looked at a horse like Marinaresco, who had no luck last year when finishing second. He could be a big runner, especially as he has amazing acceleration. But his last run was not good and being quite a small horse, he also has top weight to carry. I was offered other rides, like Brazuca, one of the Mayfair Speculator horses and the Snaith yard approached me to ride Black Arthur. Liege from the Sean Tarry yard was also a possibility. But as I have ridden for the Snaith yard on a number of occasions and many of them were feature races, made me want to repay some of the loyalty. The fact they had numerous horses with chances obviously made my decision easier.
Unfortunately Black Arthur did not win last time out so he comes in with a low weight which would have been a real struggle for me. But I am quite happy to ride It’s My Turn as he has beaten many of these horses running in the July.
Unfortunately once again we will have to contend with a wide draw and as I have said many times, you need luck to win this race. My other concern is that he has not had a second run after the layoff and might still either still be in need of an outing or go flat.
I’m starting to lean towards the three-year-olds, though, based on a line through Crowd Pleaser, but we will be discussing the July in more detail next week.
Suffice to say the form is so close that if just one thing goes wrong, you could be out of the race.
There is a panel discussion at 7pm on Tellytrack tomorrow night hosted by Graeme Hawkins and it will be interesting to hear how people like Garth Puller, Sheldon Peters and Warren Lenferna read the race.
Today we race at the Turffontein Inside track and we kick off with a very weak Maiden Plate over 1000m. It would not surprise me if a first-timer won but of the ones who have raced I would think Valegro, Toby Coates and Sailor Man are the main protagonists. Keep an eye on the betting.
Race 2 is a similar story as those who have run do not have the strongest form line either. My first choice on form is Phillydelphia but she seems very fast and the extra distance might not be in her favour. Others to take into account are I Am Titanium and possibly Sarah’s Gold who attracted betting support in her only start. She was well beaten by Brave Mary but Brave Mary did come out and win the Grade 1 at Scottsville.
Race 3 is another Maiden Plate and here we possibly have Shenanigans who could make big improvement and is a possible banker. Unfortunately he’s drawn a bit wide and as he has not raced for a couple of months so we’re not sure how fit he is. If that is a concern then include Young Eagle. He over-raced badly last time and this shorter distance could be right up his alley.
Those two should be good enough for the Place Accumulator.
Race 4 is a fillies’ handicap and a lot of these horses have finished very close to one another so include as many as you can. For the PA put in Tambalang, Cold Cash and Intriguing Lady. Cold Cash has a wide draw and Intriguing Lady often does not jump on terms and might end up too far behind on this track. Therefore also include the horses with good draws – Pennington Sand, Parisienne Chic with Tambalang and Cold Cash, despite the bad draw.
For the Pick 6 add any of your own fancies. I ride Parisienne Chic and even though she’s held on form she has a good draw and is trained by St John Gray who is in good form currently.
Race 5 is another fillies’ handicap and there are many horses with similar form. My first choice is Emerald Bay. She had some fitness issues last time but what could assist her is the fact the blinkers are being removed as she did seem quite strong in the race. But with her last three runs not that good it is hard to be confident so therefore consider Dawn Flight, Arte, Rose Water and The Right Answer. Pick any of those four for the PA and put all into the Pick 6, and possibly Bright Bronte as well. I ride Rose Water who has beaten some of these horses but in turn has also been beaten by others.
Some improvement could come about from having a good draw and racing on the Inside track as she does have a tendency to overrace.
Race 6 is yet another fillies handicap over 1000m and here you could possibly go quite light on a difficult card. My first selection, and possible PA and Pick 6 banker, is Sari. She is lightly raced, has a good draw and taking on opposition who have already shown their best form.
The only other horse I see as a danger is Cataluga.
I ride Tell My Star who is held on form by many horses but hopefully from a good draw could win.
Race 7 is another handicap and my first selection is Rebuked. His last run over 1200m on this track was quite good when he finished second to Sprint Steel who came out to win his next start. He also has the benefit of a 2.5kg apprentice claim which surely must help his chances.
He is a possible PA banker but for the Pick 6 consider William Nicol and Timeofthevikings. I ride Flag Of France who’s getting on a bit and this time around is taking on stronger company.
Race 8 is another fillies handicap and the classiest runner is arguably Alexa. She’s finished behind the likes of Bela-Bela and Juxtapose who were nominated to run in the Durban July. Unfortunately from draw No 12 she will need lots of luck in running, so consider Emily Jay, who I believe is yet to show her full potential. The same applies to Turn Back Time. Those could be enough for the PA but for the Pick 6 consider Raes’ Dyna Jet, Jo Mambo, Leopard Lily, Seattle Tango, Guns And Roses and Seal My Fate.
Race 9 is another fillies’ handicap and my selections are September Bloom, Zappy Choice and Kahlua Rose. Those should be good enough for the PA but for the Pick 6 consider Miss Turbo, In The Web and Matsuri.