Now is the time for diplomacy
If Twitter had existed in July 1914, World War I might have been averted. This is one comforting thought as President Donald Trump of the US and Kim Jong-un of North Korea hurl curses at each other across arsenals of nuclear weapons.
No European leader wanted war in 1914. They blundered into one through a series of miscalculations and misunderstandings.
A primary reason was slow communication. It took days or weeks for one leader’s intentions or actions to be recognised by the other. By then, events had moved towards disaster. Today, Trump and Kim can hear each other immediately.
Unfortunately, the speed of war has also increased. In 1914, it took days for Germany to rail tens of thousands of troops into Belgium. Today it takes a second to press a button to launch a nuclear missile. Minutes later tens of thousands would be dead.
I was 14 in 1962 when the Cuban missile crisis threatened nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union. I didn’t know enough to be scared but no doubt my parents were. An impulsive and unpredictable US president, JF Kennedy, faced a slow-moving and predictable Soviet leader, Nikita Khrushchev. Both behaved responsibly. War was averted.
Now, the US has an even more impulsive and unpredictable president. And North Korea is lead by a spoilt, eccentric, Marxist brat. They are a frightening pair.
North Korea is the ultimate communist state. Its people are crushed and starving but its ruling elite live in luxury. It is probably the most unequal society on Earth. Karl Marx would be proud of it. Kim himself is part of a Marxist dynasty, inheriting power from his father.
Kim depends on fear for the world’s regard. He believes, correctly, that nuclear weapons make a country respected – fear is a kind of respect– and give it some security. Saddam Hussein would now be the President of Iraq if he had had nuclear weapons in 2003.
Everyone knows the outcome of this possible nuclear war. North Korea would be annihilated. But the costs in human lives would be catastrophic.
I am pleased that almost all commentators point to the only possible safe solution: diplomacy. Trump has a talent for backing down with flair. He must do so now. And he must appeal to Kim to do the same.