Good odds on Bok upset

Last week, I noted sports bettors were divided on the South Africa vs Australia Test match. There was a school of thought, which included me, that thought Australia would be the business at home but at the same time, there was strong support for the Boks to win the game.

Bookmakers priced the game as a virtual even affair and big bets were placed on both teams. In retrospect, I suppose you could say that we should have seen the result coming but, unfortunately, there would have been very few punters who backed the draw at what would have been around 22/1.

The bookmakers absolutely cleaned up with that result and as all good short-term investors do, we need to dust ourselves off and prepare to go to battle again this weekend.

The Boks are in Albany for a match against world champions New Zealand. The All Blacks have not been at their best this year, with a drawn series against the British & Irish Lions, and while they have won all three Rugby Championship matches with a bonus point, they have not really fired since the first half of their opening match in Sydney.

When I priced this game up, I made the home team 18.5-point favourites and bookmakers are very much in alignment with the line, generally sitting at 17.5 points as I write this.

There is no doubt that he Boks would have to pull off a massive upset to win the game and World Sports Betting are offering 11/2 we get an upset. But the handicap is much tougher to call.

Since 2010, the Boks have played New Zealand away seven times. They have lost all seven games and the winning margins have been (starting last year) 28, 4, 14, 10, 33, 14 and 20. So, in 4 of the matches the Springboks would have beaten this handicap.

Hardly compelling evidence to get involved either way and in this game I am going to wait for the points lines to come out before putting any money down.

Brent Graham is a sports betting blogger at

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