I've put a bet on the Boks

The international rugby season ends on Saturday when South Africa take on Wales at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff. It is the only fixture this weekend and as it falls outside the international rugby window, there will be a few players missing from both teams due to club commitments.

The Welsh at first glance have had an uninspiring end to the year, losing to Australia by 8, New Zealand by 15 and only beating second tier Georgia by 7 points. A closer look suggests things haven’t been that bad though. Against Australia they played well, while last week against New Zealand they dominated the first half but failed to take advantage against a brilliant All Blacks defence.

They will be fired up to get a victory against a Rugby Championship side and will fancy their chances against a Springbok outfit that were given a 35 point hiding by Ireland in Dublin, before edging the French by a point and then beating the hopeless Italians by 29 points last week.

Had the Boks not conceded so many points in the final 10 minutes against Ireland, this tour would probably not be viewed as a disaster. If they can beat Wales, a 75% return may be the pass mark required to keep the wolves from Allister Coetzee’s door.

I made the Wales 6 point favourites and, while I had not factored in club commitments of certain players, I was surprised when the bookies installed the Boks as likely winners. In fact, Sunbet came out +3.5 Wales – and I could not resist a big bet on that.

The Welsh beat SA by 14 points last season at this ground and they also won in 2014 by a 6-point margin. They are missing players but so are the Springboks. I haven’t seen anything in the wins over France and Italy to suggest that the Boks have turned the corner. The French win was scrappy and the Italians are way off form.

I don’t mind if the Boks win this weekend but will be hoping it is not by a margin of four or more points.

Brent Graham is a sports betting blogger at

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