How NDZ wants to sink Cyril

Deputy President Ramaphosa is heading for victory at the upcoming ANC conference – but plans are afoot by Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma’s camp to ‘drown’ not only him, but also the gathering.

The Ramaphosa camp is likely to break away if he loses, says analyst.

Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa appears to be headed for victory at the upcoming ANC national elective conference, but he may not get to occupy the hot seat if his opponents disrupt the conference.

Numbers put the former trade union leader ahead of his closest competitor, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. But sources in Gauteng and Limpopo said there are plans by some Dlamini-Zuma supporters to “drown” the conference in disruptive queries on credentials, effectively halting it. Credentials relate to the numbers and legitimacy of attendees.

“We are aware there is this plan. They want to stop the conference by disrupting the proceedings – but they are not going to win. We are meticulous in how we handle litigious issues,” the source said.

Political analyst Andre Duvenhage said: “It is possible there will be a disruption during the conference. It may be one of the tricks up Jacob Zuma’s sleeve. I don’t see that being done by the Ramaphosa camp.”

Unless the ANC pursued the unity route initiated by Mpumalanga Premier David Mabuza, it was likely the conference would end in a dispute or a split, he added. Duvenhage said the Ramaphosa camp might break away from the ANC if he lost to Dlamini-Zuma. “They are likely to, because if they cannot act against Zuma, where will their legitimacy come from?” he said. Another analyst, Steven Friedman, said unity was the only option for ANC, but the only way for the party to agree on it was to ditch both Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma as presidential candidates.

Duvenhage said the ANC had to reach a compromise around Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma to avoid a split.

He suggested the Dlamini-Zuma camp would not accept defeat. He also raised the question of corruption, where money and intimidation play a role. The Gauteng source said Mabuza’s bid to unify the two sides or to end slates has the backing of some at Luthuli House. The national office favours unity over division, notwithstanding the existing branch nominations. The leadership fear a split would have a devastating effect on the ANC, which has splintered at least four times since 1994.

Mabuza has volunteered to salvage the situation although he has a personal interest in the contest. The Dlamini-Zuma camp has offered him the deputy position, but he appears to be determined to be the kingmaker until very close to the conference.

Another possible scenario is to adopt Zuma’s proposal that the loser of the two automatically becomes the deputy. This was rejected at the June policy conference, but it could be revived to prevent a split.

We are aware there is this plan.