Political uncertainty not over yet

Economic transformation, strategy and tactics and organisational renewal were just some of the topics meant to be given full attention at the ANC’s 54th national conference instead of delegates being consumed by election issues.

“From a business perspective, policy uncertainty could persist for at least the next six months as the ANC’s policy conference has been mostly focused on leadership issues,” said Seamus Duggan, an analyst at specialist global risk consultancy Control Risks.

“What we’re probably not going to see is clarity on key issues. One of those is whether or not the ANC or by extension government is going to change its position towards the mining sector in terms of the mining charter. The second issue is what position is the ANC going to take towards nuclear procurement,” Duggan said.

“This is obviously being driven by the divisions we now have, an ANC president on the one hand and a national president on the other. As long as Jacob Zuma is president we’re going to continue to see uncertainty persist and Cyril Ramaphosa has a split party with three of his top six who endorsed Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. So, he will over the next six or 12 months have to find a way to consolidate his position within the party and of navigating the internal dynamics of the ANC.”

Moving forward, Duggan noted, the internal dynamics of the ANC were not going to revolve around who supported who, but rather the interests of the ANC officials who would be looking to align themselves with the leadership.