Land grab by ANC ‘harsh’

Cyril Ramaphosa is a policy pragmatist, but the adoption of land expropriation without compensation by the ANC is a harsh decision that could bring a level of uncertainty under his leadership, a senior political analyst has said.

Analyst Andre Duvenhage said the new ANC national executive committee could also be a contributory factor to the uncertainty because it was filled to the brim with President Jacob Zuma’s allies who might want to implement radical, destructive policies.

Duvenhage, a political scientist with the North West University’s Potchefstroom campus, said the whole of South Africa and the ANC membership hoped that certainty would come from the ANC conference, but they were disappointed.

“Unfortunately, the environment is more uncertain now than before the conference due to some of the policies adopted there,” Duvenhage said.

He said it was unclear if Ramaphosa would be good enough to play his cards within the ANC top six leaders who comprised, among others, two top Zuma henchmen – Ace Magashule as secretary-general and David Mabuza as deputy president – with mild-mannered Zumite Jessie Duarte as deputy secretary-general.

Another worrisome aspect was Zuma’s fate, which remained unclear after his allies were elevated to the NEC. They would try to protect him against a recall from the presidency or being charged criminally and for the state capture to be probed.

“What is going to happen to Zuma? Is he going to be recalled or he will survive?” Duvenhage asked.

According to the political expert, the environment is highly unpredictable at the moment.

“I think that Ramaphosa is most probably going to consolidate his position. We are seeing the end of the Zuma regime.”

That the ANC January 8 statement would be presented by Ramaphosa and the State of the Nation Address by Zuma, who are in conflict politically, is interesting. “Will Ramaphosa let Zuma deliver the State of the Nation or will he be recalled before that should be a question we have to ask.”

According to Duvenhage, if they fail to recall Zuma, the ANC should be thinking about an exit strategy. “Either they come up with an exit strategy for Zuma or he will be sacked in the same way as PW Botha by the NP and Thabo Mbeki by the ANC,” he said.

Duvenhage said Ramaphosa’s policy line is more pragmatic and that’s what is required now. “What is important for Cyril is to consolidate his position within the ANC and create unity in the organisation in the build-up to 2019.

“I think the announcement on land expropriation was harsh, but he will use this as a cornerstone to create unity within the ANC,” said Duvenhage.