ANC fires of revolt spread
If the ruling party fails to resolve the volatile situation involving North West Premier Supra Mahumapelo, it is likely to face similar scenarios in other provinces and have serious losses in the 2019 elections, warn political analysts.
As the ANC struggles to manage the situation over its North West strongman Supra Mahumapelo, the fires of revolt within the organisation are threatening to spread further afield.
Disgruntled ANC members who wanted Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma as president are reportedly mobilising in KwaZulu-Natal, Free State and Eastern Cape. Recently, these members asked Jacob Zuma to lead a breakaway party – an idea he rejected.
Free State members who are dissatisfied with the Nasrec national conference outcomes are said to be lobbying their Eastern Cape counterparts to start campaigning against President Cyril Ramaphosa ahead of the 2019 elections.
However, Ramaphosa supporters in those regions have recently been flexing their muscles – agitating, like those in the North West, to remove the perceived beneficiaries of state capture, including Mahumapelo.
In the Free State, there is unhappiness about former premier Ace Magashule, who is now ANC secretary-general, but who had been linked to the Gupta family and to state capture.
The ANC leadership is in a catch-22 quandary over Mahumapelo because recalling him could lead to open clashes between his supporters and his opponents, while keeping him as premier would cost them dearly at the 2019 elections, political analysts have said.
Political analyst Andre Duvenhage said the ANC was facing a dilemma. He said three of the four regions in the province faced a service delivery meltdown and were deeply involved in political squabbles within ANC structures.
“If they do not remove Supra, there will be trouble for the ANC. At the same time if they remove him, there is still going to be trouble ... It’s going to be difficult for Ramaphosa, with or without Supra, but the best scenario is that without Supra,” Duvenhage said.
He said if Mahumapelo was recalled, it would give hope that the ANC or the government was acting against corruption and nondelivery that happened under his administration. There were clear indications Mahumapelo’s end was near.
Should the ANC fail to act against the premier, it would face the wrath of the North West voters at the 2019 elections. However, such a scenario could be avoided should the ANC and EFF enter into an electoral pact to run national and provincial governments after the election.
Analyst Somadoda Fikeni said if Mahumapelo was not recalled and grievances of the people around service delivery not ad- dressed, the ANC would suffer “devastating losses” in the 2019 elections in the province. Still, if he was removed but services were still not rendered, people would remain dissatisfied and restart their protests.
Fikeni said it would be a waste of time to remove Mahumapelo but not deliver services, because that’s what led to calls for his resignation.
“If the ANC does not resolve the crisis and Mahumapelo continues to resist being recalled, that could have an impact on the elections for the ANC to some extent. But if Supra allowed the ANC intervention process, the situation could be managed towards 2019.”
Yesterday, Mahumapelo offered to resign if the ANC asked him to. But this was rejected by some as emulating Zuma, who similarly offered to step down if the ANC asked him, but still resisted until the party threatened him with a vote of no confidence in Parliament.
Duvenhage said the ANC would continue to encounter serious trouble from the former premier league provinces and KwaZulu-Natal as their members were still unhappy with the Nasrec outcomes. Mpumalanga was out of the picture since David Mabuza was now loyal to Ramaphosa.
Duvenhage said there was already a rebellion brewing, involving some in KZN and Free State – with Zuma as a source of their mobilisation strategy.
The disgruntled Eastern Cape members who lost in the provincial ANC election, still maintain regular interactions with their counterparts in the Free State, North West and KZN. – ericn@citizen.co.za
If they do or don’t remove Supra, there will be trouble for the ANC.