Kiwis favourites despite the flaws

The eagerly awaited Super Rugby play-offs this weekend boil down to one thing only – are you a dreamer or a realist? The difference is quite easy. If you belong to the first group you’d be “dreaming” the Sharks would actually upset the Crusaders in Christchurch.

And if you are a realist you would be kind of expecting the Lions would beat the Jaguares at their Ellis Park fortress, albeit with breaking a sweat or two.

Admittedly nothing in this wonderful game of rugby is always a given, therefore the ball is oval and not round.

But no South African team has ever won a play-off match on New Zealand soil and while there’s always a first for everything, the Sharks would have to play the game of their lives and hope the Crusaders are having a shocker, with both scenarios unlikely.

Even the Lions would have to do a bit of day-dreaming themselves.

While they are expected to beat the Jaguares and even either the Waratahs or the Highlanders in the semifinal, also at home, they would be hoping, sorry dreaming, that the Crusaders would lose a semifinal against either the Hurricanes or the Chiefs in order to host the final.

Such a scenario is probably a bit more realistic than a Sharks upset, but also still very unlikely.

What also regularly happens this time of the year is some Kiwi scribe protesting the lopsided nature of the competition, which of course holds a bit of water.

The argument again is why the Lions with 46 points and the Waratahs with 44 points must host a quarterfinal fixture, while a team like the Chiefs who ended with more points on 49 must play away?

We all know the conference system is full of loopholes, but it is what it is.

If one had to go on pure points it would have been all Kiwi sides in the top three, with the Crusaders (who else) leading on 63, followed by the Hurricanes on 51 and then the Chiefs, with the Lions and the Waratahs only in fourth and fifth places.

In the ideal world it must only come down to competition points where everyone plays everyone.

But Sanzaar has designed this format especially to make it more competitive for SA and Australia to also host a play-off and stand a better chance.

After all – who on earth thinks SA or Australia could dare to win a play-off in NZ?