Africa on the rebound, but ‘must prepare’

Africa’s GDP growth is rising but it must do more to solidify a fragile recovery and prepare for major disruptions in the global economy, the International Monetary Fund’s top official for Africa said.

Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa is on track to hit 3.1% this year, up from 2.7% in 2017 and a turnaround from the 2014-15 commodities crash, Abebe Selassie, director of the IMF’s African pepartment, said. It could quicken further to 3.8% in 2019.

However, one-third of Africans live in countries where per capital GDP fell last year, according a report released by the IMF yesterday.

Trade tensions between the US and other major economies, including China, could lead to a cumulative loss of GDP for Africa of up to 1.5% by 2021.

And Africa will face long-term challenges due to rapid advances in artificial intelligence and increased automation, which are expected to shape future job markets.

“If you are not equipping your labour force for the jobs that have to be created, you could end up with much lower growth rates. And that’s what we’re worried about,” Selassie said.

Africa will need to create an average of 20 million new jobs for its rapidly growing population each year through 2035 – more than double the job creation rate of the past five years.

Though the Pan-African growth rate is dragged down by the sluggish performances of large economies such as SA, Angola and Nigeria, many countries are seeing robust expansion.

“We have 22-odd countries that are growing at close to 6% or more, and quite a lot of others in the 3%, 4% or 5%,” Selassie said.

But despite pledges to reform, little progress has been made to improve revenue mobilisation and diversify economies to make them less vulnerable to future crises, he said.

Capital inflows to Africa have grown exponentially in recent years, but there too risks exist. Much of the increase has come from debt.

Liability inflows ballooned from $3 billion in 2000 to $60 billion last year, Selassie said.

“We are very, very careful to highlight that this is a double-edged sword,” he said.

“A very healthy, stable macro environment is paramount. Those are necessary conditions. They’re not sufficient.” –

Africa will need to create an average of 20 million new jobs for its rapidly growing population each year through 2035.