The sideways-S recovery
COVID-19 CRISIS: WHAT WE NEED IS A NATION OF ENTREPRENEURS
There is the ‘old normal’ that requires lateral thinking and innovation.
What goes up must come down. What drops should surely bounce. But if the laws of gravity apply to simple economics as the V-shaped recovery post Covid-19 suggests, then we should start believing in fairy tales.
Drop a ball. Watch it bounce back. Watch it drop again and keep doing so until you notice it has exhausted itself.
The pattern paints a clear picture of where most South Africans find their earning potential right now.
For exhausted individuals and businesses, after an eternity of lockdown, the much-publicised V-shaped recovery is little more than a new slogan.
Newton’s law of gravity applies, as far as I am concerned, and there is just no way that any kind of recovery will see a bounce back where a quick upward gear change in economic activity will bring about a speedy recovery. Sorry, but simple logic says otherwise.
Ponytails and slogan writers, likely from the people that brought us the “together” range of “moving forward” inspirational banners that governments love to use, have now given us the “new normal” phrase to hang onto.
Master communicator Edward Bernays’ 1928 book Propaganda has become a textbook case study for the Covid-19 crisis. This crisis has left society and commerce in tatters, stuck in a dog-chase-tail “business as usual” hamster wheel when, in fact, a few weeks of destruction will probably require years of rebuilding.
There is no “new normal”. There is the
“old normal” that requires lateral thinking and innovation on the part of every individual and company. Kids must still go to school. Bills must still be paid. Money does not fall from the sky or grow on trees.
In plebeian terms, the recovery would more likely look like a sideways-S, a hilly landscape of uncertainty and a reorganising of the economy with new solutions. I am a pleb, not an economist. But it is blatantly clear from the comfort of my couch that we simply need to shift into gear and do something about helping ourselves, our neighbours and our immediate communities. For every week of lockdown, I reckon it would take a year of recovery. Couch wisdom, that is.
Collective capitalism, a marriage between the principles of socialist community ideals and the lust to earn a decent living, is the near future. It is a landscape where, either as a retrenched person or a reduced-salary individual, you are going to have to make a plan. Covid-19 is the great equaliser but, the power of community and the individual, now the great hope.
Now is the time to rebuild your own economy and not wait for the Godot of the corporate universe to up your salary or give you a job.
No, what we need is a nation of entrepreneurs. When I was 10 years old I went from door to door selling stationery, cleaning products and even catalogue clothing. It earned me quite a bit of pocket money at the time. I sold portioned chocolate milk powder to school friends at a profit. At home, I sold my time for chores.
Stuff sells, time has value, and if you need money, you can get it.
There is always a way to do it, and taking the lead from my preteen mindset, the fruit of any kind of labour delivers.
A few years later I worked as a cashier at a supermarket. After my shift, at lunch time, we lit a braai in the parking lot and sold boerwors rolls – a profitable enterprise with startup and working capital funded by my hourly rate as a cashier.
The Covid-19 crisis reminded me that we cannot be reliant on government to lead us into personal recovery. Whether selling widgets or consulting time, price it right and drive volume.
Today it is no longer being master of one, but rather jack of all trades, master of some. Multitasking, multiple income streams and sweat. This is how you hedge your bets against the sideways-S recovery while holding out for a V or any other letter from the propagandist phrase book.
Many years ago, Yeoville residents tried to implement a community barter currency, the Yeo. At the time, it failed, but the principle of creating closed user groups endured. Today, technology allows for communities to come together and practice social distancing at the same time.
We are responsible for our own recovery. A community-led recovery.
Weeks of destruction will require years of rebuilding