Covid-19 numbers are suspect

Official numbers do not reflect what’s happening on the ground in Mpumalanga.

Inefficiencies in tracing and testing, as well as limited access to health facilities.

Going to work has become a frightening experience and a dangerous game of Russian roulette for domestic worker Anna Mgidi, who commutes daily between her Boekenhouthoek village in Mpumalanga and Pretoria in Gauteng.

“I am scared. I work in Gauteng, where the [Covid-19] cases are rising rapidly.

“You come back home, hug your children and elderly parents, praying that you have not brought back something with you that will exterminate your loved ones and yourself,” she said.

The mother of three is amongst millions of people who returned to work following the hard lockdown imposed in March to curb the spread of the coronavirus, which causes Covid-19, with people then only allowed out to buy food, seek medical help or access social grant.

As expected, the easing of regulations and increased interaction has seen a rapid spike in infections, particularly in provinces like Gauteng, the country’s economic capital and most populated province with over 12.27 million people.

Most people in the former KwaNdebele homeland, about 100km northeast of Pretoria, work, study and conduct other economic activities in Pretoria and the surrounding suburbs, and some commute as far as Sandton, using buses, taxis and trains.

This has been red-flagged as the risk factor as reports abound of an increasing lack of adherence to social distancing, sanitisation and face covering protocols.

Analysts and officials have warned that Mpumalanga may have amongst the lowest numbers of Covid-19 infections in the country, but that this was just the calm before the storm, pointing to various risk factors and potential inefficiencies in screening, tracing and testing.

With 1 965 Covid-19 cases and more than seven deaths, Mpumalanga is one of the three provinces with the lowest Covid-19 cases but it has seen a rapid increase in cases following the easing of restrictions a month ago.

Solly Masilela, an independent socioeconomic analyst based in Mpumalanga, said he was suspicious of the numbers because they did not reflect what was on the ground.

He said he had no faith in the province’s tracing, screening and testing.

“Look at the number of mines in the province, the province’s reliance and close proximity to Gauteng, a huge amount of people work in Gauteng. “There is that happening.

“My experience is that the mass screening and testing was inadequate because those people did not even have the thermometer,” he said.

Masilela said there was also the issue of health facilities and that this could impact in the rate of tracing and testing, resulting in undetected cases.

“You might find that the cases and deaths are much more than what is documented.

“The biggest issue is access to facilities. There are no facilities – something is not and remember we are talking of a predominantly rural province, with some areas without water,” he said.

During a visit to check the province’s readiness for the pandemic’s onslaught last week, President Cyril Ramaphosa reminded provincial authorities that as much as their infections were low, they would rise.

The president, however, said he was pleased that the province was gearing itself for the storm.

An official who did not want to be named agreed that there were inefficiencies in the tracing and testing and that some farflung areas did not have access to health facilities.

“This means a case can be detected long after a person has died but I agree, the numbers could much higher than what is recorded,” the official said.

Mpumalanga department of health spokesperson Dumisane Malamule did to respond to questions.

You might find that the cases and deaths are much more than what is documented