Protests to rise in poll run-up
EXPERT: ALSO ACTIONS BY PARTIES
ANC likely to lose majorities in KZN and Gauteng, raising the stakes.
There has been a rise in service delivery-related protests since this year started and the possibility of these increasing as the year progresses cannot be ruled out, according to Good Governance Africa (GGA).
GGA’s Pranish Desai said: “There is a generally clear link between more densely populated urban areas and community protests.
“Looking at protests and riots over the past 12 months, the two most populated provinces, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, alone account for at least half of these protests, even though their combined population is less than half of South Africa as a whole.
“Across our democratic history, these two provinces have generally been the epicentre of both relatively peaceful protest action and more volatile action like we saw during the riots of July 2021.”
This was because it’s easier to organise and carry out protests in more populated areas. It is also easier to attract the public, media, political and government attention through protests in more populated areas and cities as this is often where they are headquartered.
The fact that the ANC is seriously facing the prospect of dipping below 50% during next year’s general election is something opposition parties are eager to capitalise on, according to Desai, and political parties were already showing a greater interest in coordinating and participating in their own actions.
“The ANC will almost certainly lose its majorities in KZN and Gauteng next year raising the stakes. Seeing as those two provinces account for much of the protest action in South Africa, we’d expect the national trend to rise pre-election, and especially in those provinces.”
This week, following the ANC’s national executive committee (NEC) lekgotla, party secretary-general Fikile Mbalula said there were currently 42 troublesome municipalities.
There has been renewed scrutiny of government’s capacity to deal with protests and riots, especially since July 2021. “The subsequent expert panel report identified numerous gaps in law enforcement – whether that be in intelligence gathering, crowd management, and gaps in identifying perpetrators.
“The report also found that relations between law enforcement and local communities were not cohesive. Government did take some steps to deal with the deficiencies, including increasing police numbers, revising training and establishing community policing forums,” said Desai.
But whether these measures have worked will only be seen in how the expected rise in demonstrations in the runup to next year’s election are dealt with, he added.