‘Big battle’ lies ahead for the ruling party

A battered ANC faces its biggest battle since the struggle against apartheid to retain a majority in a landmark election this year.

Cash-strapped and attacked over corruption, a weak economy, power cuts and mounting crime, polls show the ANC is still likely to come out ahead in elections.

But infighting and widespread disillusionment with the ANC threaten to significantly erode its share of the vote and force it into a possibly uncomfortable power-sharing agreement.

“Right now, the ANC is at its most divided, yet it is facing the most critical election since 1994,” says William Gumede, a politics professor at the University of the Witwatersrand.

Former president Jacob Zuma – tainted by scandal but still wielding considerable clout – vowed to campaign and vote for the radical new uMkhonto weSizwe party. While insisting he remains in the ANC, Zuma condemned President Cyril Ramaphosa’s government.

Political analyst Sandile Swana says: “Treachery, dishonesty and double-dealing in the ANC is the norm.”

Anglican church leader Archbishop Thabo Makgoba says South Africans have become “worn down by lies, corruption and incompetence”.

“As politicians begin to realise that they may not be in power after the next election, their deception, scams and fraud grow more blatant by the day as they grow hungrier and hungrier for ill-begotten proceeds of power.”

Mamphela Ramphele, a former World Bank managing director says: “The post-apartheid government has led the country to the cliffs of inequality, poverty and renewed injustice.”

Support for the party has steadily declined since hitting a high of 69% at elections in 2004. In 2019, it won 57% of the vote. In 2024 – 30 years since it came to power – the ANC could slide below 50% for the first time in the election expected around May.

A poll in October put the ANC at 45%, down from 52% in March.

Some analysts believe Zuma’s intervention could take the figure even lower.

“He has that identity appeal and a rebel appeal to angry voters,” says Susan Booysen, a political analyst for the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection.

Gumede says a 46%-49% vote share could force the ANC into a coalition with smaller radical parties such as the Economic Freedom Fighters.

But he adds that if the share falls below 45%, it will become a threat to Ramaphosa’s leadership.

“That would be revenge for Zuma,” says Gumede.

Addressing ANC supporters this week, Ramaphosa exuded confidence, saying that those thinking the party could be airbrushed out of existence and pushed out of power were “just dreaming”. –