Wrap up of IRP23 urgent for investment

The conclusion of the Draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP23) is urgent to allow for investment decisions and long-term planning as load shedding has reportedly cost the economy R225 billion between the first quarters of 2020 and 2023.

The department of mineral resources and energy has published the much anticipated revision of the IRP 2019, which gave rise to the draft IRP 2023 on 4 January 2024, for public comment.

South Africa has experienced severe load shedding almost daily since September 2022 and this can largely be attributed to a significant drop in the energy availability factor of the Eskom coal fleet that was not maintained properly, as well as shutting down units at Koeberg for life extension, Dr Titus Mathe, CEO of the South African National Energy Institute, said in his preliminary view of the ERP23.

He said the challenges experienced at Kusile when the entire power station had to shut down also contributed significantly to higher levels and frequency of load shedding, making 2022-2023 the worst years in terms of higher stages and frequency of load shedding.

“Arguably, the cost of the loss of R225 billion to the economy will give rise to a positive return for any investment option available, such as the renewal or upgrade of existing coal power plants, new nuclear build, new cleaner coal technologies, new gas to power, new solar to power, new wind to

power and energy storage facilities, as well as energy efficiency and demand side management initiatives to eliminate load shedding.”

He pointed out it will take years, even decades, to recover economically from this excessive load shedding.

“As SA transitions towards a low-carbon economy, it can balance the energy mix with reducing levels of load shedding, unemployment, poverty, inequality and slow economic growth.”

Mathe said the draft IRP must indicate which power stations’ lives will be extended.