Nothing is certain in upcoming polls

To hear the optimistic, even arrogant, pronouncements from our two major political parties – the ANC and the Democratic Alliance (DA) – this weekend, you’d think they had the election already sewn up and in their pockets. The reality is that they perhaps should not be sitting so fat, happy and complacent… because the electorate might have different ideas.

South Africa is at a democratic crossroads and politics has never been so fluid, nor election outcomes as difficult to predict, as they are now.

ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa has made it clear that the reports of his party’s imminent demise are, in the words of Mark Twain, somewhat exaggerated.

He thinks the ANC will get 50% at the polls in Gauteng. It may well do so, given the amount of taxpayer money the province’s premier, Panyaza Lesufi, has been throwing at “job creation” projects which are nothing less than a PR campaign for the ANC.

The DA is also confident it will do well nationally and in its Western Cape stronghold, perhaps buoyed by the fact that it compares very well indeed to the ANC when it comes to efficiency in running the provinces and the towns where it holds the majority.

Also there are many of its voters still motivated by “ANC gevaar” (fear – or loathing – of the ANC).

Yet, a new poll indicates that voters may well disappoint both parties, because in many areas there is a clear desire for change.

Another major factor for the DA could be the loss of its Muslim voters, unhappy with the party’s failure to condemn Israeli action in Gaza.

For the ANC, it can also bank on the fact that its major competitor for black votes, the Economic Freedom Fighters, is still not trusted by many for its policy on foreigners in South Africa.

One thing, though, is certain: Nothing is certain.