Betting guide to elections

With President Cyril Ramaphosa expected to announce the election date this week, here are my ante-post election odds.

At 12/10, topping the board, is Ramaphosa to retain his presidential title.

The worst-performing president from the ANC stable, he only managed 57.5% of the vote five years ago – a sharp drop from the 69.69% in 2004.

Since then, Ramaphosa has been losing form at the rate of knots. Didn’t get out the gate at Phala Phala and has let SA drift out wide as far as service delivery is concerned.

However, he has a concubine of pacemakers, so he is the obvious choice.

Jacob Zuma sneaks in as concubine number one. At 20/1 for the win and 12/20 for a place, (deputy president), he should have every chance to be back in parliament.

Ramaphosa could well see a coalition with the MK Party as a perfect opportunity to try and unite the divided ANC.

Zuma can take advantage of the leadership vacuum left by Mangosuthu Buthelezi at the IFP and with his party’s well-established and catchy name, grab more votes than anticipated. A serious runner, even at his age.

At 25/1 to take the presidential oath is suitor number two, DA leader John Steenhuisen.

He is politician par excellence, flirting with everyone. Keeping all his options open, he takes centre stage at a Multi-Party Charter pact (without the ANC), at the same time declaring his willingness to co-govern with Ramaphosa, all in one week.

The long odds of 25/1 is for the win, but for a place (deputy president), I can’t offer more than 2/1.

Ramaphosa might see Steenhuisen as a key to racial unification, rather than ANC unification, and that could elevate his international status.

Only problem is, Steenhuisen might not get the numbers on election day to be kingmaker.

If, by chance, he runs above his merit rating on the day, he could win the race in the boardroom with the help of the stipes like Pieter Groenewald (FF Plus), Kenneth Meshoe (ACDP) and others.

At 80/1 is Julius Malema. He has no form, blows more cold than hot, and is outclassed.

The rest are on offer at 100/1 or better.

These predictions are not about the election results, but the outcome of coalition negotiations when the counting is done.