Coalition govt for SA?
GAME-CHANGER: ANC SUPPORT EXPECTED TO DROP TO 48% FROM 57%
Party at risk of losing majority at the polls – analysts.
The ruling ANC risks losing its majority in this year’s elections but should be able to form a governing coalition with smaller parties rather than having to enlist its main rivals, a survey of political analysts shows.
Support for the ANC is expected to drop to 48%, from 57% five years ago, according to the median estimate of 14 analysts canvassed by Bloomberg between 26 January and 2 February, with just two forecasting that the party will win more than half the vote.
The main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) is expected to garner 22% backing, and the populist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) 12.5%.
The ANC’s reputation took a hammering during former president Jacob Zuma’s nine-year rule, which was marred by endemic corruption and the collapse of key state institutions.
While the ANC forced Zuma to step down in 2018, his successor Cyril Ramaphosa has struggled to tackle widely pervasive poverty and unemployment, end crippling power cuts and stamp out graft – factors that are expected to cost it support.
“I think the ANC will be able to cobble together a desperate coalition. The ANC’s electoral support is in free-fall, but it still has the biggest electoral machine of any organisation in the country.
“It can therefore do a lot in terms of getting out the vote, but even that machinery cannot cope with the level of government failures and scandals that are drawing people away from the ANC,” said Lukhanyo Vangqa, an independent analyst.
The election must be held by August, although a date has yet to be announced.
Most of the analysts emphasised that campaigning is still at an early stage and the outlook could change as the vote draws nearer. Their predictions of the outcome are broadly in line with those of several opinion polls.
“It is impossible to say at the moment what the percentage breakdown will be, because a lot will be determined by how many voters turn out on election day,” said Zwelethu Jolobe, head of the University of Cape Town’s political studies department.
If the ANC does win slightly less than half the vote, potential partners include the GOOD party, whose leader Patricia de Lille serves as tourism minister in Ramaphosa’s Cabinet, the Patriotic Alliance and Al Jama-ah.
The DA has entered into an alliance known as the Multi-Party
Charter with 10 rivals, including the Inkatha Freedom Party, the Freedom Front Plus and Action SA, and they all agreed they won’t work with the ANC or the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). It’s unclear whether any of them might renege on that commitment should their leaders be offered Cabinet posts and other positions.
“If the ANC had to lose an outright majority, it will still, more than likely, be the party with the largest percentage and the most number of seats in parliament. Who they would ask to join them would depend on how far away from an overall majority they are,” said Sanusha Naidu, analyst at the Institute for Global Dialogue.
The EFF would be in contention for a power-sharing deal should support for the ruling party drop significantly below 50%. The EFF has had a fractious relationship with Ramaphosa, but
it has co-ruled with the ANC in some municipalities.
“The worst case for the ANC would be if they drop to 45%. Then they would have to invite one of the larger opposition parties to join them in government. I think it would probably be the Inkatha Freedom Party, because both are nationalist in outlook and their policies are broadly similar,” said Melanie Verwoerd, independent analyst.
Zuma is a wild card in the election. In December, he announced he’ll campaign for the new uMkhonto weSizwe party and last month the ANC suspended him from its ranks. He remains popular in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal and his defection may cost the ANC votes.
Ramaphosa has dismissed suggestions that the ANC will lose its majority, saying those who predict that it will, don’t understand SA politics. –