US to get tougher on China

POLICY: WHETHER IT’S BIDEN OR TRUMP WHO WINS POLLS, THE DIRECTION WILL BE HAWKISH

Incumbent has largely kept his predecessor’s tariffs.

In a shift from tit-for-tat tariffs and strong-arm tactics to tech restrictions and investment curbs, US policy towards China has become more targeted under President Joe Biden – though still hardline.

Despite differences between Democrats and Republicans, analysts expect Washington’s approach to Beijing will only become tougher, whether Biden or former president Donald Trump wins another White House term.

“I think the direction of pressure in Washington is absolutely in one direction, which is more hawkishness,” said Joshua Meltzer, senior fellow at Brookings Institution.

Already, Biden has largely maintained Trump-era tariffs, rolled out export control restrictions to curtail Beijing’s ability to buy and make certain highend chips, and unveiled an order to curb outbound investments to China.

Officials are also seeking to boost self-reliance in key areas, including clean energy supply chains, while further action on data flows is expected. “There is currently congressional pressure to do more,” Meltzer told AFP.

With citizen concerns over trade, business and manufacturing cutting across party lines, the preferred degree of toughness on China tends to be a policy rather than partisan divide, said Jamieson Greer, partner at law firm King & Spalding.

Greer, formerly US Trade Representative chief of staff during the Trump administration, believes there are two camps in Washington.

One views China as an existential threat to the economy, national security or both, therefore justifying strong and broad protection measures. The other is cautious about overestimating the China threat, and concerned with imposing tough trade and economic measures.

But both groups assume risks associated with China – a shift that became prominent nearly a decade ago. “It became big during the 2016 presidential election cycle, when candidate Donald Trump was very, very vocal about trade issues and China in particular,” Greer said.

Trump gave voice to something many people “agreed with on both sides of the aisle” but were unwilling to say aloud, he added.

But experts agree that a second

Biden or Trump administration would diverge on policies.

The Biden administration does not expect to “reach a deal with China, where they’re going to make these major reforms and changes”, Meltzer said.

“It’s really about, how do you adjust to the reality of China? How do you bring allies along?”

There is a “notion of derisking from a security perspective as well”, he added.

But the Trump administration favoured using US leverage to broker a deal changing China’s behaviour, Meltzer said, referring to the Phase One trade agreement culminating from a truce in the escalating tariffs war. –