‘Nato lake’ needs plugging

– Sweden’s accession to Nato adds a final puzzle piece to the alliance around the shores of the strategically important Baltic Sea – but Russia still poses a threat above and below water.

After Finland joined last year, Sweden’s membership – which looks set to clear the final hurdle on Monday with Hungary’s vote on ratification – means all the countries surrounding the Baltic Sea, except Russia, will be part of the US-led military alliance.

That has led some to label the sea a “Nato lake”, with the Western allies now appearing wellplaced to strangle Russia’s room for manoeuvre in the crucial shipping route if a war with Moscow ever breaks out.

But analysts warn that while Sweden’s entry makes it easier for Nato to exert control, Russia can still threaten undersea infrastructure.

“If you look at a map then, geographically, the Baltic Sea is becoming a Nato lake, yes,” said Minna Alander a research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. “But there is still work to do for Nato.”

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a series of high-profile incidents involving pipelines and cables under the Baltic Sea have given Nato a wake-up call over its vulnerabilities.

In September 2022, a sabotage attack hit the Nord Stream gas pipelines between Russia and Europe. Over a year on, investigators have still not publicly named those responsible.

Then, last October a gas pipeline and a cable from Finland and Sweden to Estonia were damaged. Finnish police say they believe a Chinese cargo ship was likely involved.