Gordhan on edge of abyss
THE budget that Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan tables in parliament tomorrow will probably be the most political of the Zuma years.
This is not to say fiscal decisions are usually neutral or apolitical.
At the best of times, fiscal decisions are made with full understanding of the fragility of fiscal restraint, of the political vulnerabilities of those who want to pursue policies of restraint, and those who want to throw caution to the wind and throw more and more money at problems.
The choices before the government, then, invariably coalesce around whether to spend only the money that it has (or expects to receive through taxation), or draw on credit or simply print more money.
More to the point, in both cases the government has to make political decisions based on foresight and expect to be judged at the next election.
If rising debts and deficits lead to higher interest rates and an increase in consumer prices, and if recurrent currency crises or fluctuations increase instability and uncertainty, political leaders could be kicked out of office.
In a normal democracy, it is, sometimes, that simple.
The spread of minimalist democracy – in which the population has a direct say only once every four years – and fractures in the fledgling social democratic polity are spreading because of panic and crisis politics in South Africa.
At least three things are behind panic and crisis politics.
Together they stand to shape tomorrow’s budget and, by extension, the months that follow.
First, the ruling alliance was shaken by the outcome of last year’s local government elections.
Second, the alliance’s halo has slipped and it is probably irretrievable.
Third, the romantic idealism of “restoration” continues, apparently, now, in anger rather than in any progressive visionary manner. The ANC’s losses in last year’s local government elections were a shock to the system.
With the victory of the DA in key metros, the ANC now has to look over its right shoulder at every step.
The rise in EFF rhetoric and populism means the ruling alliance also has to look over its left shoulder.
This has had a dizzying effect on the ANC’s political focus.
The party seems to be experiencing a type of political encephalopathy because of this constant swing to the left then right.
One should be serious about these things, but this is the best way I can describe the apparent loss of function and of activity at the head of the table.
This malfunction has been apparent in almost every activity of the ANC’s most prominent leaders, from the horripilating laughter of the president at inopportune moments, to the end-of-empire type of greed and the gluttony that was so well captured in Monty Python’s Mr Creosote in The Meaning of Life.
These lifestyle choices, the mean mendacity, the vituperation in parliament, and the clear cruelty of Marikana and Esidimeni have helped the ANC lose the aura and moral authority of the liberation struggle.
If anything defines the moment of tomorrow’s budget, it is the romantic idealism of restoration – and Gordhan has been identified as the biggest obstacle.
What I describe here as restoration has to be approached with caution.
It is a complex and divisive issue, in which countervailing arguments or inquiring logic are marked with the painful branding iron of racism, imperialism, counter-revolution or defence of “white privilege” or “white monopoly capitalism”.
Let me try, then, an analogy I nailed down in the first draft of a book that I just cannot seem to make time to complete.
There’s a fabulous scene in Richard Donner’s 1978 film, Superman, where the superhero flies around the globe against time apparently spinning the world backwards.
He uses his superpowers and faster-than-light speed to reverse time back to a point before disaster struck, when his beloved Louis Lane was killed. Superman pulls the world back to a place in time when his world was intact, the way it was supposed to be.
Perfect. It was, of course, fabulous, in the sense that it has no basis in reality . . .
Several forces are converging on Gordhan and the Treasury, which have been identified as the main obstacle to the fable of returning South Africa’s political economy back in time and out of the filthy paws of “white monopoly capitalism”.
And as one government department or public entity collapses after another, the solution, we are led to believe, lies in taking over the Treasury to give effect to “radical economic transformation” – which may not necessarily be a bad idea.
The question is how many more lives have to be destroyed to take us back to the highly romanticised ideal state before Lane was killed.
As for the budget itself, well, Gordhan has the unenviable task of balancing and juggling while the ground beneath him may be about to split open.
‘ Several forces are converging on Gordhan and the Treasury, which have been identified as the main obstacle to the fable of returning South Africa’s political economy back in time