How much further can economy decline?

THIS was the week that was:

Gigaba and Buthelezi

GB used to stand for “Great Britain”. After Brexit that remains to be seen and tested.

GB in South Africa now stands for “(Malusi) Gigaba and (Sfiso) Buthelezi”, in whose hands JZ has entrusted the Treasury!

Initial reaction, shown through the support of the rand, was not good.

The rand initially went down 8% then recovered a bit but has since slid further down. Where will it stop?

The real test is still to come. S& P and Fitch have downgraded South Africa to junk status.

The rand could fall to 18 to the pound. Time for my friends in England to book their holidays in South Africa!

The track records of GB are not encouraging.

Gigaba’s periods as minister of home affairs and earlier in charge of public enterprises coincided with the collapse of good governance at SAA, Denel and Eskom, and also the blunders with the introduction of border post birth certificate visa requirements.

Buthelezi also has some question marks identified in Thuli Madonsela’s State of Capture report as related to a big contract at Prasa awarded to one of his relatives which need explanation.

The markets will watch how GB handles the replacement of the SAA chief executive, the continuation of the Oakbay-Pravin Gordhan case and the setting up of a new local bank later in the year.

ANC muzzles MPs

The latest announcements from the ANC NEC effectively put a muzzle on anyone disagreeing with JZ or ANC policy! That’s not the way to go. MPs should be able to speak their minds, but of course the consensus or majority view must eventually be followed by the party.

Now we hear from the ANC secretary-general that the real reason why JZ fired Gordhan and Mcebisi Jonas was a total breakdown in their relationships!

JZ’s publicly announced reason for the cabinet reshuffle, to “improve efficiency and effectiveness”, was a load of codswollop!

Now that JZ has got his henchmen installed at Treasury and other critical ministries, what can we expect?

A nuclear build programme to go ahead, which Gordhan said we couldn’t afford, with lots of juicy contracts and partnerships?

A new jet for JZ? A SAA chief executive appointment to another JZ friend, land expropriation without compensation, a change to the constitution, guarantees for SA Express or payments for money owed to banks, funding for new aircraft for SAA, SABC appointments of favourites without qualifications or experience, the State of Capture report effectively delayed for ever, funding found for fee-free education, etc!

All this will need a huge increase in revenue. Where will GB find this? Will VAT go up? Will there be another increase in the fuel levy, a top-end increase in house transfer fees, the sugar tax?

No confidence vote

The JZ no confidence vote, sponsored by the DA and EFF, will get nowhere without ANC MPs being able (or willing) to vote with the opposition in accordance with their expressed views!

That won’t happen, the ANC has said, unless the ANC itself sponsors a no confidence vote in the president.

But the DA and the EFF are piling up the evidence which they will use at the 2019 elections.

Tony Wadsworth, Port Elizabeth