Defining week in history:

TWO important things will happen this week. Today National Assembly Speaker Baleka Mbete will announce whether she will allow a secret ballot in the vote of no confidence in President Jacob Zuma.

It is not an easy decision for her. It is one that will define her historic place in the story of our democracy.

She told the Sunday Times at the weekend that she found herself in an impossible position – she is damned if she does and damned if she does not.

With the Constitutional Court declaring that she had the power to grant a secret ballot but that her decision must pass the rationality test, opposition parties are already gearing up for a showdown.

They pre-empt that her decision will be a political rather than rational one.

For this reason, they are preparing to apply to interdict tomorrow’s proceedings in an attempt to get the courts to force her to grant a secret ballot.

Regardless of which way she goes, Mbete’s decision will remain hugely unpopular and will carry consequences for her own political career.

Yet it is one she has to make and in so doing, she must be mindful of the immediate concerns raised by MPs as well as the precedent she will set for our democratic order.

The second crucial thing is the vote itself.

It is the eighth attempt of its kind to unseat Zuma.

Although it comes at a time when Zuma’s support inside and outside the party is at its lowest, it is unlikely to succeed.

The ANC enjoys a comfortable majority which is unlikely to be reduced even by those MPs opposed to Zuma.

They will cave in because they will be mindful that should this motion succeed, the ANC’s succession battle will likely play out in the benches of parliament in the most prolonged and chaotic manner which could very well force an early general election.