Will Masualle stay to 2019?

AN interesting speech caught my attention on Sunday. No, not the dreadful one by a 93-year-old dictator who held on to power up north. This speech was earlier in the day, at an event to honour anti-apartheid heroes Griffiths and Victoria Mxenge at the Bhisho Stadium.

Mziwonke Ndabeni, an ANC Youth League interim leader in the Eastern Cape, called for the party’s provincial chairman, Oscar Mabuyane, to replace Phumulo Masualle as the premier.

“Comrade Mabuyane must take his rightful place and lead the provincial government,” Ndabeni said.

“We are resolute on this and if he does not want to heed this call, we will take him to Bhisho by force because there are not two centres of power in the ANC.

“We cannot have an ANC chairperson outside government (meanwhile) those in government use state resources to frustrate the leadership of ANC.”

Ordinarily, one would dismiss this as the ramblings of a young man pandering to those in power.

After all Ndabeni himself is a curious character with a healthy dose of political ambition. But his call cannot be outright dismissed. First, let me make these two points. Due to space constraints, today’s column will not reflect on Mabuyane’s fitness to become the premier.

Second, it is common cause that Mabuyane’s September election as provincial ANC chairman is the subject of a bitter dispute between the party’s warring factions.

An investigation sanctioned by the party’s top leaders is under way to determine if the conference – and thus his election – was duly constituted.

This column is based on a scenario where the outcome of that investigation rubber-stamps Mabuyane’s election as provincial ANC boss.

I stand to be corrected here, but I believe Ndabeni’s is the first public call from an ANC structure for Masualle to be replaced by Mabuyane since the provincial conference.

Of course Ndabeni’s reasons for lobbying may be more sinister than a sudden desire to strengthen governance.

In fact, the latter part of his statement suggests that his reasons may have little to do with you and me as citizens, but instead are largely about the internal dynamics of ANC politics and proximity to power.

Be that as it may, his call will likely resonate with members far beyond the youth league.

It is a discussion already unfolding, albeit unofficially, in privileged spaces of those in the inner circle of power.

The events of recent months demonstrate that the pressure around Masualle is likely to gain momentum going forward.

Rewind a bit to July, when Mabuyane – undoubtedly smelling victory ahead of the provincial conference – gave assurance that his election would not mean a purge of Masualle and his supporters in cabinet.

The premier’s job would be safe, Mabuyane emphatically told the media at the time.

Of course this could have been mere political speak by Mabuyane to portray a non-factional posture and to allay fears that his election would upset an already volatile apple cart in Bhisho. And then came the conference. As tensions boiled over, chairs were flung, blood flowed and whatever semblance of comradeship that may have existed days before was shattered.

On the last day of the conference, journalists asked newly elected provincial secretary Lulama Ngcukayithobi whether Masualle’s job was safe. Still seething, Ngcukayithobi was nonetheless diplomatic.

The ANC would assess the performance of all its deployees in government and any decision taken would be necessitated by the need to improve the lives of people, he said.

When asked the same question days after the conference, Mabuyane’s answer was an amusingly noticeable departure from his initial reassuring stance.

“What is important is that everyone does their work and stays in their lane, and the ANC will do its job because people in South Africa vote for the ANC,” Mabuyane said.

“And if the ANC cannot hold its members who are in government accountable, then that is a problem we will face when we ask for votes come 2019,” he said. Herein lies part of Masualle’s headache. It is no secret that the relationship between the premier and his political bosses in Calata House is fraught.

The scars of the violent conference run much deeper than portrayed.

Masualle is also leading the charge, challenging the legitimacy of the conference in a dispute report which Mabuyane referred to as “pathetic and ridiculous” during a TV interview on Monday.

Based on this situation alone, it is difficult to see how each side would effectively manage the power dynamics that arise here, let alone political accountability.

Further, Masualle’s performance in government hardly inspires enough confidence to compel keeping him in power.

Apart from the provincial road network built in his term, Bhisho’s developmental record is, frankly, dismal.

It is a reflection on the leadership from the highest office in this province.

The electoral pressure on the ANC will only escalate in the next two years.

The question to ask is whether Mabuyane will lead a search for 2019 votes on the back of a state leadership he himself may not have confidence in.