EU in shock after Italian poll result
RIVAL populist leaders fought for the right to govern Italy yesterday after their surge in a general election left the country in political limbo.
The anti-immigrant League party and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) each claimed that Sunday’s vote gave them a mandate to lead the nation of 60 million.
Meanwhile, the European Union (EU) struggled to absorb the electoral shock amid fears that the anti-migrant blowback would threaten a post-Brexit reform drive led by France and Germany.
The jolt from Rome came hours after Germany snapped months of political stalemate in Berlin, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel clinching four more years in power on a cautious pledge to help overhaul Europe.
However the respite from Germany was short-lived.
Analysts said the EU would now be split between those like French President Emmanuel Macron who say the answer to populism is bolstering Europe, and others claiming that any further EU integration must be abandoned, at least for now.
European Policy Centre research director Janis Emmanouilidis said in Brussels: “You will have people against striking a reform deal, saying that now, especially with this mess in Italy, it is not the right moment for taking up risks.”
Meanwhile, he said, “there will be others who will say if you look at Italy and the antiestablishment voters fed up with the economic situation and migration, that we simply can’t pretend to go on as we are”.
Pressure to reform the EU and deepen ties among the soon-to-be 27 member states mounted in 2016 with the populist-fuelled vote in Britain to split from the bloc.
The populist narrative slowed in May when Macron came to power in France promising to end “business as usual” in Europe with a series of ambitious proposals.
But momentum for change was thwarted almost from the start in Germany when an uncertain election result in September forced Merkel into tortuous coalition building that finally ended Sunday with a deal with the centre- left SPD.
Now Italy could be the impediment to change, analysts said.
Jack Allen, of macroeconomic research firm Capital Economics, said: “With M5S and the eurosceptic League performing better than expected, further progress on European integration could be difficult.
“For example, they will push back against efforts to increase Italy’s contributions to the EU budget after the UK leaves the Union,” he said.
The biggest pressure on Europe will be on fixing migration, with Italy on the frontline of the wave of migrants from Africa, which hardened anti-EU sentiment in Sunday’s poll.
Under the EU’s controversial Dublin process, frontline states suffer the brunt of the influx, fuelling xenophobia in countries like Italy and Greece.
French MEP Jean Arthuis said on Twitter: “Against the migration flow, the EU did not meet the call of duty due to fears over national sovereignty. “Italy suffered the consequences.” This issue was further worsened by the economy, with Italy still an EU growth laggard despite adopting big reforms demanded by Brussels that have yet to deliver widely felt benefits.
Faced with that failure, analysts said the most imminent danger was that a populist-run Rome would increase spending to deliver on campaign promises in disregard of EU rules.
Federico Santi, of risk consultancy the Eurasia Group, said: “This will create more friction between Rome and the European Commission.
In Rome, League leader Matteo Salvini said he had the right and the duty to form a government.
But M5S, which won the biggest share of the vote of any single party, claimed it was the winner.
Its leader Luigi di Maio said it had a responsibility to form a government.
With most ballots counted, the League was leading the dominant right-wing coalition, which won roughly 37% of the vote overall.