Whole new ball game for DA
THE DA has many problems, which fall into four broad categories. First, the DAmaphosa conundrum, the challenge imposed on the party by President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Second, the challenge of managing internal dynamics. Third, the Mmusi Maimane challenge. Fourth, the challenge of managing the EFF. Jacob Zuma’s presidency of the ANC and the country were a boon to opposition parties, particularly the DA and the EFF.
As they say, people must be careful of what they wish for, because, when it happens, reality may not taste as sweet as what was desired.
The election of Ramaphosa has introduced a set of challenges that may cause a yearning for Zuma. Under Zuma, 2019 looked different. The ANC was going to suffer its most devastating electoral losses since 1994.
With Ramaphosa’s coronation, this scenario has become a mirage and the DA must now recalibrate its electoral strategy.
One of the first things it must do is present voters with a presidential candidate who is equal to the task of neutralising the Ramaphosa effect.
In fact, the DA must pray that Ramaphosa does not call for an early election.
It would be a disaster for the DA given the fact that its own research suggests that Maimane is doing very little for the party’s brand.
If my sources within the party are correct, the only reason the DA will take Maimane to the next election is because there is very little time left before next year’s election to construct a leader who will be a drawcard to black voters.
Too many black voters think Maimane is a puppet.
I do not share this view, but I do think that there are too many ventriloquists in the DA.
Former leaders of the official opposition Tony Leon and Helen Zille were better at managing internal dynamics and cleavages.
Maimane inherited a party that is largely the creation of Zille.
But her success in making the DA attractive to an increasing number of black people has introduced new dimensions to these internal dynamics and cleavages.
A few years ago, a DA leader told me that the party was ill-prepared for the challenges that would come with its growth.
Because the DA is not in opposition in every corner of the country, some of the challenges Maimane faces are about the sins of incumbency.
To some degree, therefore, the DA must accept that the more power it wins in government, the more it will start looking like the ANC. In addition, this means that, for career politicians, principle is not going to govern decisions about whether the maximisation of personal interest will be achieved through the DA or the ANC.
In other words, the day will come when some members of the party will find it easier to shift between political parties if the alternative is a stagnant political career.
This tendency lends itself to another: the exploitation of racial, ideological and policy tensions inside the party.
Furthermore, the DA may be forced to consider slight shifts in ideological content to keep coalition arrangements alive when a coalition partner such as the EFF makes policy demands that are anathema and a threat to the economic interests of the country’s cultural majority.
In my view, these challenges, coupled with the DAmaphosa conundrum, are too big for Maimane and the fact that black voters do not feel him is a major electoral challenge.
Also, those who feel his party do not come in sufficient numbers.
Maybe, just maybe, this is the reason some in the party believe Maimane needs a deputy.
He is not the future.