Bleak outlook with second-driest April in 73 years

PORT Elizabeth experienced its second-driest April – with only 3.2mm of rain falling – in 73 years.

And not enough rain is expected in the foreseeable future to break the drought in the Bay.

The driest April on record was in 1945, when only 1.7mm of rain was measured.

SA Weather Service regional manager Hugh van Niekerk said the city could still expect rain, but it would not be enough to end the drought.

“The seasonal forecast indicates that for the next four to five months we should get near normal rainfall, despite the fact that we have had a very dry April,” he said.

“Unfortunately, we need a strong signature of well above normal rainfall to break the current drought and this does not look likely at present.”

In October, The Herald reported that the Nelson Mandela Bay municipality was pinning its hopes of solving the city’s water crisis on an extreme rainfall event expected to occur towards the end of this year.

But Van Niekerk said the extreme rainfall event was not guaranteed.

“It is a bit too far in advance. The month of October is only statistically based on history,” he said.

SA Weather Service forecaster Garth Sampson said statistics suggested there was a 90% chance of an extreme rainfall event and, if it did not happen by December 26, it would be the longest period in the city’s history without one.

“There is a good chance of it happening because it has never exceeded that period,” he said.

“But, you know, they say, never say never.”

Sampson said the April rainfall was far below the average of 50mm. “The total rainfall of 76.2mm for the first four months of the year is the sixth-lowest since 1937,” he said.

Nelson Mandela Bay’s dams were at a combined average of 23.27% on Monday.