fun & games bridge

When declarer holds nine cards in a suit and is missing the Q-x-x-x, the normal play is to cash the A-K to try to drop the queen. It is important to realise, though, that percentagewise the edge in favour of playing this way – as opposed to a second-round finesse – is very slight. For this reason, any clues acquired from the bidding or play may justify taking a finesse instead.

Consider this deal where West played the KQ-A of clubs, declarer ruffing the third round as East discarded a diamond. Since South had to lose a spade trick eventually, the fate of the contract hinged on avoiding a trump loser.

Declarer was fully familiar with the standard play with this suit combination, but was equally aware that the percentages could easily be altered by information gained anywhere along the line. In the present case, he learned from the first three tricks that West had started with six clubs and East only two.

This in turn meant that West held seven other cards that were unknown, while East held 11. Taking this a step further, South reasoned that if the defenders hold 18 cards that are unknown, the player with 11 of them is much more likely to have a specific missing card than the player who has only seven.

Accordingly, declarer led a heart to the ace at trick four and returned a heart toward his hand. After East followed low, South finessed the jack and so brought home the contract.

It is true that the jack could easily have lost to the queen, as there was certainly no guarantee that the finesse would succeed. But it was the right thing to do in this case because it was the percentage play. When all you have is favorable odds to rely on, you should do as they dictate, and you will win many more times than you lose.