ANC support declining ahead of poll, survey finds

A new poll by the Institute of Race Relations has indicated that support for the ANC is declining ahead of the national election in May.

The poll revealed the ANC currently enjoys the support of 54.7% of voters – a 1.3% decline since December, and 7.4% down from the last election.

“The ANC’s general decline from 2014 can be almost exclusively attributed to the EFF.

“The ANC and the EFF are locked in a battle for between 5% and 10% of alienated black ANC voters‚” the institute’s politics and governance head, Gareth van Onselen, said.

“Where those voters end up on May 8 will go some way towards determining the fate of these two parties.

“It is clear those 5% to 10% of alienated black ANC voters are fluid and have shifted between the ANC and EFF over the past five months.”

The poll was conducted telephonically in February and involved 1‚611 registered voters who were fully representative of voter demographics in the Western Cape and Gauteng.

It found that:

● Support for the ANC currently stood at 54.7% nationally – down 1.3% since December and 7.4% from the 62.1% the party secured in 2014;

● The DA currently stood at 21.8% nationally – up 3.1% since December but down 0.4% from the 22.2% the party secured in 2014; and

● The EFF currently stood at 12.2% nationally – up 1.2% from December and 5.9% from the 6.3% it secured in 2014.

Van Onselen said it was evident that the ANC’s support base was being shaken by the main opposition parties.

While Gauteng was currently governed by the ANC‚ the research revealed that the party was losing supporters in the province‚ while the EFF’s support was growing.

“In the Western Cape‚ the DA majority is on a knife-edge‚ with smaller parties showing some growth‚” he said.

On the Gauteng provincial ballot‚ the poll found that:

● Support for the ANC currently stood at 41.6% – down 12% from the 53.6% it secured in the provincial ballot in 2014;

● The DA stood at 32.4% – up 1.6% from the 30.8% it secured in 2014; and

● The EFF stood at 18.2% – up 7.9% from 10.3% in 2014.

The poll found the DA had a racially diverse support base – 27.3% black‚ 36% white‚ 28% coloured and 8.6% Indian.

The ANC’s support base remains primarily black at 96.2%. Its remaining support is made up of 2.2% coloured‚ 1.1% white and 0.5% Indian voters.

When it comes to the EFF‚ 98.1% of its supporters are black. Only 1.3% are coloured‚ 0.4% white and 0.1% Indian.