Risk of global pandemics very real – experts

Major outbreak could kill tens of millions, says WHO

The world is facing a mounting threat of disease pandemics that could kill millions and wreak havoc on the global economy, an expert panel has warned, and governments should work to prepare for and mitigate that risk.

The Global Preparedness Monitoring Board, co-convened by the World Bank and the World Health Organisation (WHO), warned that epidemic-prone viral diseases like Ebola, flu and SARS are increasingly tough to manage in a world dominated by lengthy conflicts, fragile states and forced migration.

“The threat of a pandemic spreading around the globe is a real one,” the group said in a report released on Wednesday.

“A quick-moving pathogen has the potential to kill tens of millions of people, disrupt economies and destabilise national security.”

While some governments and international agencies had made efforts to be vigilant and prepare for major disease outbreaks since the 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola outbreak, these steps were grossly insufficient, the report said.

Gro Harlem Brundtland, a former WHO head who cochaired the board, said approaches to disease and health emergencies were characterised by a cycle of panic and neglect.

The report cited the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which killed an estimated 50-million people.

With vast numbers of people crossing the world on planes every day, an equivalent airborne outbreak now could spread globally in less than 36 hours and kill an estimated 50million to 80-million people, wiping out nearly 5% of the global economy, it said.

In the case of a pandemic, many national health systems – particularly in poor countries – would collapse.

“Poverty and fragility exacerbate outbreaks of infectious disease and help create the conditions for pandemics to take hold,” Axel van Trotsenburg, acting chief executive of the World Bank and a member of the panel, said.

Calling on governments to “heed the lessons these outbreaks are teaching us” and to “fix the roof before the rain comes”, WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said they should invest in strengthening health systems, boost funds for research into new technologies, improve coordination and rapid communication systems, and monitor progress continually.

The WHO warned earlier in 2019 that another pandemic of flu – caused by airborne viruses – was inevitable. –

‘Poverty and fragility help create the conditions for pandemics to take hold’ Axel van Trotsenburg

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