Far more people may be immune: scientists shake up the ‘week of truth’
Ten times more people than previously thought might already have acquired immunity to the coronavirus, according to a groundbreaking study in Germany.
Scientists from the University of Bonn on Monday claimed their findings show that 1.8 million people across Germany had already been infected with the virus.
That is more than 10 times as many as have tested positive so far, and would mean more than 1.6 million may have been infected and recovered without knowing it.
The findings are based on the first comprehensive study of the effects of the virus on a single community in Gangelt, the town at the epicentre of Germany’s first major outbreak.
The study’s initial findings last month suggested the fatality rate in Gangelt was much lower than previously thought, at just 0.37%.
The study’s authors now believe this is the general fatality rate for the virus and that it can be used to extrapolate the total number of undetected infections from the death toll.
Prof Hendrik Streeck, the study’s leader, said: “The infection fatality rate is a property of the virus. It can, to a degree, be applied to all of Germany — corrected for demography, of course.”
So far, 165,745 have tested positive for the virus in Germany and 6,866 people have died, according to Johns Hopkins University.
That suggests a fatality rate of 4.1%, but most scientists believe there are many more undetected infections.
The majority of those who are infected show only mild symptoms, and a fifth show no symptoms at all, the Gangelt study found.
“Every apparently healthy person we encounter could be unwittingly carrying the virus. We have to keep this in mind and act accordingly,” Prof Martin Exner, another of the study’s authors, said.
The Gangelt study has proved controversial in Germany.
Rival scientists have questioned its methodology, and were quick to cast doubt on Monday’s findings.
Prof Gérard Krause of the Helm-holtz Centre for Infection Research pointed to the fact only seven people were known to have died of the virus in Gangelt.
“That means one death more or less would make a really significant difference to the study.”