Covid-19 could ‘peter out by itself

Coronavirus has downgraded from a “tiger to a wild cat” and could die out on its own without a vaccine, an infectious diseases specialist has claimed.

Prof Matteo Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the Policlinico San Martino hospital in Italy, says Covid-19 has been losing its virulence in the past month and patients who would have previously died are now recovering.

The expert in critical care said the plummeting number of cases could mean a vaccine was no longer needed since the virus might never return.

“The clinical impression I have is that the virus is changing in severity,” Bassetti said.

“In March and early April the patterns were completely different. People were coming to the emergency department with a very difficult-to-manage illness and they needed oxygen and ventilation; some developed pneumonia.

“Now, in the past four weeks, the picture has completely changed.

“There could be a lower viral load in the respiratory tract, probably due to a genetic mutation in the virus which has not yet been demonstrated scientifically.

“Also we are now more aware of the disease and able to manage it.

“It was like an aggressive tiger in March and April but now it’s like a wild cat.

“Even patients aged 80 or 90 are now sitting up in bed and breathing without help.

“The same patients would have died in two or three days before.

“I think the virus has mutated because our immune system reacts to the virus and we have a lower viral load now due to the lockdown, mask-wearing, social distancing.

“We still have to demonstrate why it’s different now.

“Yes, probably it could go away completely without a vaccine. We have fewer and fewer people infected and it could end up with the virus dying out.”

Prof Karol Sikora, an oncologist and chief medical officer at Rutherford Health, previously said it was likely the public had more immunity than previously thought and Covid-19 could end up “petering out by itself”.

However, Dr Bharat

Pankhania, a senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter Medical School and a former Public Health England consultant, said the idea that Covid19 would die out is “optimistic in the short term”.

“I don’t expect it to die out that quickly. It will if it has no-one to infect.

“If we have a successful vaccine then we’ll be able to do what we did with smallpox.

“But because it’s so infectious and widespread, it won’t go away for a very long time.

“My estimate is ranging from never to if we are really lucky and it sort of mutates and mutates, it may lose its virulence — we’re talking years and years.

“I disagree with Prof Sikora that nirvana is around the corner.”—