Easter weather legacy still holds some ground

As April is mid-autumn, there is no doubt that we are fast approaching winter. In fact, we usually see the first outbreak of cold over Easter weekend.

This was a theory of a dearly departed friend and colleague Pete Lumb.

I tested his theory and it holds ground a third of the time.

This is possibly why we have this bad weather reputation with inland tourists.

They endure the windiest month of the year in December and then return for Easter weekend, when they experience cold and rainy conditions.

Naturally they miss out on the great January to March holiday-type weather that we have here.

Looking at the forecast, it seems dear Pete’s theory holds ground once again this year.

One good thing about testing the theory is that 10mm rain in 24 hours in April is almost a certainty, which is great news for rainwater harvesters.

Though statistically April is the month with the least chance of a flood or dam filling rain.

Incidentally, the earliest outbreak of cold (minimum temperature below 10°C) in the Bay occurred on the March 4 1996 and the latest on May 2 2009.

Looking at the rainfall figures, an early or late winter is not a sure sign as to a good or bad rainfall season.

What is a certainty though, is that the latest seasonal forecast is not looking promising right through the winter, with below normal rainfall expected over our catchment area.

This is not good for our drought-ravaged region.

Coupled with that, both day and night-time temperatures are expected to be above normal.

Consider that with the dry winter conditions evaporation will be at a premium; this means further aggravating our water woes.

Though the metro is trying to augment water supply, by means of Coega Kop and Bushy Park Well Fields, we are still using too much water.

Even with Nooitgedacht operating at 100% capacity, the metro is using too much water.

Any water flowing into our local dams this winter must be used as sparingly as possible, so that we have sufficient water from the local dams to carry us through the summer months.

The metro has been sticking to the department of water & sanitation (DWS) allocations and has no intention of extracting more than allocated from our local dams.

Thus, if consumption is not reduced, allocations reduced due to no good inflow, they will be forced to employ other methods to compel the public to reduce consumption.

That is not the worst of our problems, as we are heading for the “fire season” over most of our region.

Dry vegetation and the abundance of fallen foliage under these trees, coupled with a berg wind or two, are the perfect recipe for a raging veld fire.

Keeping those gutters clean is vital for rain water harvesting as well as preventing a fire spreading to your house.

This week in history:

Water restrictions were implemented in the Bay in April 2006. Strange how history keeps repeating itself.

Weather safety tips:

As seen with the KwaZulu-Natal storms/floods this week, video footage shows the importance of staying off the roads during severe weather.

Numerous people found themselves in life-threatening situations while in their vehicles, while travelling at the height of the storm.

Stay indoors until the storm subsides.