FIVE DECIDING FACTORS

GOAL-KICKING

Elton Jantjies had an off day last weekend, missing four shots at goal, but has generally been excellent this season. He will have to find that kicking form today. Missed kicks means a team can’t build scoreboard pressure and it gives the opposition hope. The same goes for Canes fullback Jordie Barrett – he’s an excellent kicker and will play an equally important part for his team.

REFEREE

Marius van der Westhuizen was heavily criticised for his handling of last weekend’s game at Ellis Park – unjustly, by my account – so it’s no surprise there’s already been a lot of talk about Jaco Peyper handling today’s match. Some like him, some don’t; the New Zealanders aren’t happy, that’s for sure. Either way, Peyper has a big job on his hands to make the right calls.

ELLIS PARK

The Lions haven’t lost at home in 15 straight matches, they love the 2.30pm kick-off and they believe they are capable of beating anyone at home. The Canes, though, will feel they love Ellis Park just as much, having won 50-17 at the venue last year. And they, too, will love playing in dry, clear conditions. Will the fact the Canes had to travel to Joburg early in the week have a say, though?

DEFENCE

They are the two best attacking teams in the competition, having scored the most tries – as was the case a year ago. It’s inevitable then that the side that defends best against the other will have a huge advantage. The Lions let in only 27 tries in the regular season for the best record, but they are facing a New Zealand team for the first time this season.

SCRUMS

It seems silly to single out the scrums, but it is a crucial part of the game. It is here where teams often “milk” penalties, allowing them to kick to the corners to set up a lineout, from which they can have a drive at the line. Or, they can simply kick at goal. Scrums are such a 50/50 call for the referee that teams know they can exploit them to their advantage.