DRC looks set for a rerun of Burundi

As the government delays elections and extends its term, civic unrest is mobilising ominously

ARE we seeing red flags in the Democratic Republic of Congo that suggest security may unravel in the country as it did in Burundi last year, when President Pierre Nkurunziza insisted on staying in power? That is the question analysts of the DRC are being asked by early warning centres in the region.

It seems red flags are certainly flying, and the situation could easily deteriorate if the government does not set a firm electoral calendar soon. Already we have seen a series of rolling protests and stayaways across the country that have the potential to gain momentum. This is how the situation started in Burundi when protests gained momentum against Nkurunziza’s third term bid, to the point there were daily mass protests which were consistently met by government force.

Opposition leaders in the DRC called for a nationwide strike on Tuesday this week, and a number of them are boycotting the national dialogue which is supposed to forge a consensus on when the elections will be held. The opposition coalition is prepared only to enter into a dialogue that respects the constitution – which would see Kabila leave power on December 20. It also refuses to accept former Togolese Prime Minister Edem Kodjo as the mediator, as he is seen as aligned to the government.

The type of civic action that took hold in Burundi last year is now emerging in the DRC, and the same indicators that precipitated violence in Burundi are now also prevalent in the Congo. Human rights violations by the DRC security forces continue, according to human rights organisations, although token numbers of political prisoners have been released.

In the same way that the Constitutional Court in Burundi ruled that Nkurunziza’s third term was legal, the Constitutional Court in the DRC has ruled that Kabila can remain in power until a democratically elected leader replaces him. This then legally gives Kabila the right to stay on in power an additional six or more months past the end of his term, while the electoral commission completes voter registration, which should be in July next year. Just as the Constitutional Court in Burundi was stacked with Nkurunziza’s allies and dissenting judges fled the country for their lives, the Constitutional Court in the DRC is also stacked with Kabila’s allies.

Even the judge who had ruled that opposition leader Moise Katumbi was guilty of real estate fraud – a warrant was issued for his arrest – later admitted she had been coerced into ruling that way. Katumbi, who is the former governor of Katanga province, felt compelled to leave the country rather than face arrest, and is now neutralised as a serious opposition candidate for president through his absence. Despite the judge’s admission, a warrant for his arrest still holds.

The dialogue talks this week included 50 participants representing President Joseph Kabila’s government, civil society and a few opposition politicians, including Vital Kamerhe, who has strong support in Bukavu. Kamerhe used to be a strong Kabila ally as president of the National Assembly, but fell out with Kabila when the president sanctioned military exercises with Rwanda which saw thousands of Rwandan troops enter the DRC in 2009. Parliament was not duly informed and from that time Kamerhe and Kabila became sworn enemies. The fact that he is attending the dialogue has raised questions as to whether he may have been co-opted by the government.

Veteran opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi is still going strong, and returned to the DRC in July after a two-year absence, to a significant welcome in Kinshasa. Tshisekedi still believes he is the rightful president of the DRC as he

The type of civic action that took hold in Burundi last year is now emerging

claims he won the 2011 elections.

DRC experts are concerned that if elections are not held in December, Tshisekedi may proclaim himself president with the support of Katumbi and his supporters. If Tshisekedi were to attempt to establish a parallel leadership it would divide the country and lead to chaos. It has also been suggested that key opposition politicians have been talking to segments of the poorly paid military and some could end up fighting the government.

With his political popularity at home waning, Kabila has attempted to woo support in the region, visiting Uganda and Rwanda recently.

Both countries have played a particularly negative role in the DRC over the years, but the leaders have come together with Kabila when their interests have aligned. The presidents of Uganda and Rwanda will not criticise Kabila’s extended time in office, given their own extended terms, and Kabila will need their diplomatic cover.

The region will need to take preventive action to ensure that the DRC is not destabilised by ensuring there is a timely transfer of power, and conditions for free and fair elections are created – which ultimately means an even playing field for the opposition.

Ebrahim is group foreign editor of Independent Media