Five reasons Iran may play a role
PRESIDENT Barack Obama left something out in his address this month on strategies to confront Islamic State: how Iran fits into the emerging coalition.
It could be among the defining challenges of the US-led coalition. Like all affairs in Iraq, Tehran is in the mix either directly or as patrons for proxies.
It’s improbable Iran would fall in line as a reliable partner under a US umbrella. On November 6, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the international alliance against Islamic State is “shrouded in serious ambiguities”.
But Iran has many reasons to also seek Islamic State’s demise. In another of the Middle East’s strange-bedfellow outcomes, Iran is likely to be drawn into any Westernled scenarios against Islamic State militants and their networks. Here are five reasons why:
SHIA MUSCLE: Iran has important sway over powerful Shia militias in Iraq. Some turned their guns against US troops in the past. Now, units of Shia fighters have joined the battles against the Sunni-led Islamic State in northern Iraq. The reason is balance of power. Iraq’s Shia factions are deeply unsettled by the idea of rising Sunni extremists who condemn Shia Muslims with the same fervour they denounce the West.
POLITICAL POWER: The Shia-led government in Baghdad remains in Tehran’s orbit. Iran was intertwined with the leadership of former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki. That is unlikely to change significantly under the newly named Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi despite his greater outreach to the Sunnis. Any comprehensive plan for attack on Islamic State must get at least some nod from Baghdad. That means Iran always is in the wings.
SYRIA: The fight must cross the border to Syria, where the militants have strongholds. Obama had suggested the ground game in Syria could be led by “moderate” rebels whose goal has been toppling Syrian President Bashir Assad. Iran remains a critical ally of Assad. The West doesn’t want to deal directly with him to co-ordinate strategies. But Iran could.
REGIONAL RIVALRIES: Washington and its allies want as few Middle East distractions as possible. This includes trying to keep a lid on the rivalries between Iran and Sunni power Saudi Arabia, a Western ally whose strict brand of Islam has also provided ideological grounding for some extremists. Before his speech, Obama called Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah. It’s another sign of the critical Saudi role in mobilising Arab support. Another message is on Washington’s mind: keeping Saudi Arabia calm amid possible greater outreach to Iran. Saudi Arabia threw a tantrum when America opened nuclear talks with Iran. The US doesn’t want another Saudi spat on its hands now.
ROOM TO TALK: There are more chances for direct US-Iran dialogue. Channels have been open through the negotiations over its nuclear programme. Tehran and Washington have taken part previously in three-way talks hosted by Iraq. The world’s leaders are in New York this week and next for the UN General Assembly. – The Washington Post