Seasonal forecasters predict wetter weather to come
SCIENTISTS are carefully optimistic about a wetter summer, says the South African Weather Service.
With the drought persisting, seasonal forecasters are now hopeful the summer rainfall areas can expect more rain in November, December and January.
The next seasonal forecast will be available towards the end of the month.
Although the strong El Niño event, the main cause of the drought, has dissipated, South Africa is still experiencing a drought, mainly because of local conditions related to the state of our oceans, not favourable for a wet spring.
However, according to forecaster Cobus Olivier, there is light at the end of the tunnel, as the climate models indicate things will start looking better towards the middle of summer.
The weather service’s seasonal forecasting prediction indicates that above-normal rainfall and temperatures can be expected during the early summer season.
“However, it must be kept in mind that the models that are used globally to predict the early summer season still contain moderate levels of uncertainty.
“Current forecasts also do not include late summer expectations, which will become available in the next two to three months.
“Internationally, a lot of publicity was created about the possibility of a La Niña event, which was optimistically anticipated for this summer,” he said.
La Niña is the opposite of El Niño. In other words, it’s the cooling of sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and therefore associated with above normal and even very heavy rain in South Africa’s summer rainfall areas.
“However, current climate models indicate rather that a La Niña is unlikely, with only a small chance of a weak La Niña forming.”
According to Olivier, even though improved rainfall is expected, extreme rainfall events should not be expected to occur.
For this reason, it remained very important to monitor the latest climate forecasts, in order to correctly determine the possible impacts and implications.
“Currently, the situation is delicate for all climate-sensi- tive sectors such as agriculture, water management and health.
“As the country is already under water stress, water needs to be used sparingly,” Olivier added.
The weather service would continue to monitor and communicate climate conditions and their tendencies, provide timeous monthly updates and further enhance engagement with the media, relevant government departments and the National Disaster Management Centre, he said.
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The situation is delicate for all climate-sensitive sectors