IS apocalypse postponed, but militants might still believe

TO ISLAMIC State, the town of Dabiq in northern Syria was never of real strategic significance. And yet, symbolically, there were few places that were deemed more influential by the group’s own leaders.

Dabiq was the town where Islamic State believed the beginning of the end would take place: an apocalyptic battle between Muslims and the “Romans” fulfilling a historic prophecy that would lead to the group’s victory over the West, according to its propaganda.

That battle, however, has now at least been postponed. On Sunday, Islamic State surprisingly withdrew from the highly symbolic town, as its adversaries prepared an offensive against its stronghold Mosul far to the east in Iraq.

Islamic State’s willingness to give up the little town of once 3 000 inhabitants is a stunning development that’s worth taking a closer look at.

The 7th century prophecy of Dabiq was one of its most frequently used arguments to recruit foreigners.

It was in the English-language Dabiq magazine that the group praised the attacks it had organised or inspired in Europe and North Africa. American aid worker Abdul-Rahman Kassig was executed in that town, as well. “Here we are, burying the first American crusader in Dabiq, eagerly waiting for the remainder of your armies to arrive,” his executor was heard saying in a video at the time.

Dabiq used to be a metaphor for the threat Islamic State posed. Now, it could signalise the group’s demise.

But apart from showing that the militants are under intense pressure, experts are uncertain what the willingness of Islamic State to give up the town so easily tells us about its inner workings. Did Islamic State leaders ever truly believe in the prophecy of Dabiq and are they willing to further rely on it or did they use it simply as a recruitment strategy?

It is without doubt that Dabiq was crucial to Islamic State’s propaganda apparatus. Data from Google shows how its attacks in the West fuelled the apocalyptic rhetoric, and the reverse.

Search interest in the term “Dabiq” first spiked in December 2014 when the magazine under the same title published strong criticism of al-Qaeda, referring to the apocalyptic battle that was assumed to be ahead. From that point onwards, search interest always spiked when terror attacks in Western countries occurred: the Charlie Hebdo shooting, the Copenhagen attacks, and finally the devastating Paris attacks with more than 130 victims.

Researchers have voiced doubts whether Dabiq’s loss implies the end of its prophecy being used in Islamic State propaganda.

So, how does Islamic State still rely on the Dabiq prophecy? Does it really believe in it?

For Europe and North America, the answer to that question could make a significant difference. In the early days of Islamic State in 2014, many argued the group was less dangerous to the West because it was focused on gaining ground in Syria and Iraq and had no interest in provoking the anger of Western countries, like France or the US. In other words: having more enemies would also mean having more problems for Islamic State making attacks elsewhere less likely.

Islamic State was seen as a rational force, acting with its long-term interests in mind. But a group that truly believes in the apocalypse changes the calculation.

The latter possibility gained ground amid the recent wave of attacks in the West that were claimed by Islamic State which is why search interest in Dabiq spiked after the Paris attacks. Was Islamic State serious about its propaganda? Why did it plan attacks in the West despite the repercussions on its territory in Syria?

Following the Paris attacks, Yale University’s Abbas Milani argued Islamic State’s ultimate goal was to draw the West into a confrontation similar to the Dabiq prophecy. “There’s a lot of method to this madness,” he said.

Whereas few had probably heard of Dabiq before 2014, the small town has been pushed into the spotlight by Islamic State.

For the group, that has both been beneficial and risky: losing it could be interpreted as a sign of weakness, as is now the case. With Islamic State on the defensive, the prospect of an apocalyptic battle has become less attractive for a group that would be likely to lose.

The group’s magazine Dabiq last appeared in July and is now published under a different name, Rumiyah.

Declaring Islamic State’s apocalyptic vision as dead could be a mistake, however.

In a written exchange with Amarnath Amarasingam, a fellow at George Washington University, one Islamic State fighter implied on Sunday that giving up Dabiq was not an acknowledgement of defeat. Their prophecy referred to Western troops fighting, rather than the Syrian rebels who have now taken over.

In its Arabic-language newspaper al-Naba, Islamic State recently discussed the possible fall of Dabiq, arguing it was not the prophesied battle. Dabiq is still very much in the minds of Islamic State fighters and leaders, it appears. – The Washington Post