Russian troops fuel fears of ‘big war’
Attacks in eastern Ukraine on the rise
MILITARY authorities in Ukraine believe the number of Russian troops within and close to its borders has risen to more than 50 000, raising fears of a substantial escalation in the conflict raging in Ukraine’s eastern regions.
Nearly 9 000 Russian Federation Armed Forces personnel are believed to be based inside Ukraine, according to reports from the country’s National Security and Defence Council. The rest are based in the neighbouring Rostov region of Russia, including mechanised assault units and communications command systems.
This is in addition to 33 400 so-called “illegal armed formations” of Russian-backed separatist soldiers in eastern Ukraine, with 400 main battle tanks and close to 2 000 armoured troop carriers reported to be at “full combat readiness”.
Western countries have repeatedly accused Russia of becoming involved in the conflict, a claim Moscow has denied, despite what Ukraine and other observers see as evidence of troop build-up.
Western officials have been quick to talk of their concern at the rise in the number of attacks and rocket fire between Ukrainian forces and the Russian-backed separatists in recent days. Specifically, there is concern at the number of violations of a ceasefire agreement implemented in February after talks in Minsk. While the fighting has decreased since then, the recent surge is worrying. For example, the firing of banned “Grad” multiplerocket launch systems restarted last week, with dozens of attacks recorded.
Russian-backed separatists were believed to have fired Grad rockets at residential areas on Thursday night. By Friday morning, National Security and Defence Council secretary Alexander Turchynov said that Ukraine might be forced to declare martial law.
“Ukrainian armed forces are ready to not only repel attacks but, if necessary, to counter enemy forces,” Turchynov said.
His words appear to have gone unheeded with 19 Grad multiple missile rockets being fired and 175 Minsk ceasefire violations recorded since Friday night.
In Opytne, five missiles struck within 20m of each other, creating craters 10m wide and 3m deep, narrowly missing civilian homes. On the outskirts of the town, one civilian home had been destroyed by a heavy artillery shell, banned under the Minsk II agreement.
A distressed grandmother spoke of how her daughter and grandchildren, aged 3, 7 and 11, had been rushed to hospital by Ukrainian military forces but remained in a critical condition.
The grandmother, who gave her name as Natalyia, said the force of the explosion had sent her flying through a window.
Ukrainian intelligence reports suggest 300 Grad missile systems are based inside Ukraine – 200 with Russian-backed separatists and 100 with Russian Federation forces.
The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe has said that its monitors continued to observe ceasefire violations, including the use of heavy weapons, tanks and smaller-calibre weapons. Most of the violence occurred in residential areas.
Emboldened rebel commanders have launched renewed offensives against Ukrainian towns recently.
Separatist envoy Denis Pushilin also raised the prospect of war, telling a briefing: “Kiev most likely also understands if the Minsk process will be halted as it is… this means war… not only in the Donbass (eastern Ukraine), but this may be a big war.”
Pushilin said Kiev’s implementation of the Minsk agreement had been limited and accused Ukrainian forces of violating the ceasefire by engaging in military “provocations” against separatist forces.
As more than 6 000 people have died in the conflict since it began in April last year, and up to a million have been displaced, fears of an escalation are significant.
UK Defence Secretary Michael Fallon said the conflict was “still red-hot” on a visit to Kiev this week and that he could not see an end to the fighting “any time soon”.
The commander of a front-line 4 500strong Ukrainian unit, who asked not to be named for fear of reprisals against his family, said the country was well-defended and could repel any attack.
However, he made clear the potential consequences if Russian forces with Russianbacked separatists tried to further invade Ukraine – “World War III”.