Commonwealth games: gain/gamble?

THE LARGE-SCALE, ratepayer-funded advertisements placed by eThekwini municipality in KwaZulu- Natal newspapers are nothing more than speculative spin-doctoring on the outcomes of Durban hosting the 2022 Commonwealth Games.

The sugar-coating on these advertising features includes: an estimated R20 billion injection into the national economy; ticket sales of some 1.3 million and the recruitment of 10 000 volunteers over the 11 day games period, the experience of which will “increase their future employment prospects”. It all reads like a shower of benefits coming Durban’s way, which we should fervently embrace.

Research on the hosting of megasporting events, however, produces a very different picture. Whereas mayor James Nxumalo indulges in counting the chickens before they have hatched, he would do well to focus on the costs involved, as the constitutional principles of accountability and transparency advise.

Significantly, nowhere in the mayor’s promotion of Durban’s games bid does he broach the topic of costs. The reason is clear: it is not politically expedient to do so.

Whilst the “Legacy” sites on the internet are gushing about what they deem as the positive impacts of hosting mega-sporting events, they are silent about the massive cost over-runs. The costs of the Commonwealth Games held in Manchester in 2002 were 120 percent over budget.

The costs of the 2012 London Olympics rose from an initial £2.4bn (R48bn) to £11bn. The cost of the Glasgow Commonwealth Games held in 2014 rose 50 percent from £373 million to £543m. And of that sum, according to The Scotsman of August 7, 2015, £424.5m was taxpayer-funded.

Much is made by Legacy 2014 in a 60 page analysis of the economics of the Glasgow games, it would seem, so as to boost Scottish national sentiment ahead of the September 2014 Scottish referendum on independence. In the executive summary it claimed that Scotland’s economy benefited to the tune of £740m.

But in later pages that figure was revised downwards in terms of what are referred to as “displacement” and “deadweight” statistics. Displacement concerns local residents who would have spent money locally anyway. Deadweight refers to visitors who would have come to Scotland irrespective of the hosting of the games.

In net terms, then, the overall benefit of the games to Scotland’s economy was put at just £73m with Glasgow itself netting £37m. When those statistics are compared to the cost borne by the taxpayer of £424.5m, it is hardly a rosy return.

As one analyst stated, it amounts to “public pain for private gain.”

So, what are the gains which Glasgow is said to have made from the games? According to the official games website there are six legacies: Accessibility in terms of improved transportation; promotion of physical activity; encouraging support for local business; appreciating volunteerism; promotion of Glasgow’s international profile and greening Glasgow.

Aside from whatever tangible benefits may result from improved transportation and greening, the other four “legacies” are merely aspirations without any certainty of realisation. Nonetheless, Glaswegians were urged to “take home memories” and to be “inspired by a world class sporting event”. Such rhetoric begs the question as to how that translates into economic benefit and upliftment.

“New facilities and pledges of a physically active Glasgow are largely targeted at the few at the expense of the many,” notes the Glasgow Games Monitor of 2014.

Durban is already experiencing that in the form of the Moses Mabhida stadium. Magnificent though it is, it is grossly under-utilised and costs R6m a month to maintain.

By hoping to secure the vote of the Commonwealth Games Federation on September 2 as the host for 2022, mayor Nxumalo is gambling with ratepayers’ money that has yet to be earned and, in all likelihood, saddling Durban up with more debt. DR DUNCAN DU BOIS DURBAN