The electricity crisis: what political parties say in their manifestos about solving it
South Africa is in the middle of a deep electricity crisis. In 2023, the public experienced the worst load shedding to date, losing power for an average of five hours a day.
The power shortages were largely due to excessive breakdowns in the country’s coal power plant fleet, which generates over 80% of SA’s electricity, combined with delays in developing new generation capacity.
The power crisis is a key election topic with national elections scheduled for May 29. The ANC is tipped to lose its absolute majority in parliament. One reason is that it did not act on early warnings that electricity supply would drop to critical levels. In recent times, the ANC-led government tried to fix this by removing constraints to private electricity generation and appointing a dedicated Electricity minister. But the situation had deteriorated beyond the point where these steps could fix the problem.
As a physicist who has written widely on load shedding and renewable energy, I predict that — given the ANC government’s failure to end the energy crisis — opposition parties’ fortunes will be boosted on election day if they offer credible and effective alternatives to load shedding. However, despite confident sounding sales pitches, there are neither quick nor cheap solutions, which are what the public is looking for.
DO THE POLITICAL PARTIES PRIORITISE ELECTRICITY?
In the last general elections in 2019, the three parties that received the highest number of votes devoted an average of just two percent (measured in pages) of their election manifestos to electricity.
These were the ANC, DA and the EFF. In the current election campaigns, the major parties have devoted up to 10% of their manifesto to this topic. They have covered the topics of electricity and incentive mechanisms, potential business or job spin-offs, and possible devolution and private investment options. However, none have put time frames to their electricity proposals. What is also largely missing from the manifestos is an evaluation of the costs of rolling out new forms of energy, which could lead to budget cuts in other areas. There is also little indication that parties favour certain types of energy based on their affordability.
PRIVATISATION VS NATIONALISATION
This is a key theme of the manifestos. The DA and other parties that present themselves as “pro-business”, such as Action South Africa and Build One South Africa, believe that largescale privatisation of electricity will lead to the end of power cuts. This is an ideological view that free market systems are more effective than state monopolies.
The EFF is a firm advocate of nationalisation and wants to terminate existing contracts with private power producers. It proposes repairing coalfired power plants and keeping them going for longer. But fixing some plants might be prohibitively expensive. Many parties favour unbundling Eskom and devolving the electricity sector into smaller entities. This has already been initiated with the recent passing of the Electricity Regulation Amendment Bill, although some parties would like to stimulate competitiveness further.
This includes allowing municipalities more room to drive their own electricity generation. In its manifesto, the DA is canvassing on the basis of projects already initiated in municipalities that it governs.
RENEW(ABLE) OR NOT?
President Cyril Ramaphosa and some advisory bodies have been quite enthusiastic about a boom in wind and solar energy.
But Gwede Mantashe, the minister responsible for energy planning, has been a vocal promoter of coal, gas and nuclear power, while sounding sceptical of renewables. This is also reflected in his recently released and much criticised draft Integrated Resource Plan for electricity.
The ANC election manifesto is most closely aligned with the presidential vision. It highlights industrial growth and job opportunities linked to renewable power, such as developing a green hydrogen sector. There is only one short entry that states that the party intends to “develop gas, nuclear and hydro power projects”.
The Good party. Along with the DA, favours the idea that new generating capacity should come mainly from wind and solar.
While promoting a “mix” of energy sources, the EFF sees coal and nuclear as “core” energy generating technologies. Its very long manifesto says that the nuclear plant construction should be established in co-operation with Russia. This is a provocative position to take, given that former president Jacob Zuma made a failed bid when he was in office for a massive new nuclear build by Russia.
Another controversial technology specifically advocated by the EFF is so-called “clean” coal. This is produced when relatively costly technological improvements are made to a power plant that would partly lower, but not eliminate, carbon emissions.
WHAT DO PARTIES AGREE ON?
All the parties whose manifestos I examined agree that small-scale domestic solar rooftop installations should be promoted further by government. This followed a boom in 2023 that prevented even more extensive power cuts. Incentives to achieve this include subsidies, tax breaks and the opportunity for income generation through selling back excess electricity to the utility.
If a coalition government takes power after the elections, the route out of the electricity crisis could remain contested. This will hamper speedy progress on larger new builds. However, the intensified roll-out of domestic solar installations enjoys support across the board. This is perhaps where progress will be fastest.