Weekend Argus (Saturday Edition)
Coalition comrades set to rule key metros
A “PACKAGE deal” in which the DA and EFF enter an improbable marriage of convenience to govern all three of the so-called battleground metros in these elections – Nelson Mandela Bay, Tshwane and Johannesburg – is emerging as a strong possibility now that only a few results are outstanding.
In all three, a DA-EFF combination could have the number of seats required to freeze the ANC out of power in a hammer blow to the air of invincibility it has worn since democracy, ushering in a new, if uncertain, era of coalition politics.
ANC leaders from Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa to chairwoman Baleka Mbete spent the day yesterday trying to put a positive gloss on the humbling dealt to the party in these elections, but both were forced to concede that the message it had been sent would require deep introspection.
The news only worsened as the day progressed, starting with an admission of defeat in Nelson Mandela Bay, where the ANC ended up with just 41.5 percent to the DA’s 46.66 percent (or 57 seats out of 120), meaning the EFF with 5.03 percent (6 seats) could hand the DA the council if it agreed to a coalition.
By yesterday evening the DA had announced it would also govern Tshwane in coalition as its projections based on results already in showed it would have most seats.
With 82.65 percent of voting districts counted in Tshwane, the ANC had 42.97 percent, the DA 42.29 and the EFF 10.98 – again making a DA- EFF coalition a viable option should this picture not shift dramatically.
In Johannesburg, the DA had 42.36 percent, the ANC 41.42 percent and the EFF 10.41 percent, with 75.77 percent of voting stations tallied.
The last voting stations to be counted may still lean heavily in favour of the ANC and tilt the balance somewhat.
But one of the trends from these elections has been that turnout in traditional ANC strongholds has been lower, muting their impact on the outcome.
ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe poured scorn on Maimane’s declaration of victory in Tshwane, saying he was relying on CSIR projections.
“In Tshwane we’re ahead and the results are trickling in, we’re ahead of them in Tshwane, we’ll see what will happen,” Mantashe said.
“We’re not going to lose in Tshwane, even if we don’t get the majority, we’re going to be the biggest party.
“In Johannesburg it’s still neck and neck now, the results are still trickling in, I don’t want to make predictions,” he said.
But even before the evening results had firmed up such a possibility, chairman of the DA federal executive James Selfe said the party’s preference would be for a “package deal” for all three metros, rather than attempting to cobble together coalitions in each with a range of smaller parties.
In Nelson Mandela Bay, for example, a combination with some or all of the UDM, AIC, ACDP, Cope, the Patriotic Alliance and the United Front of the Eastern Cape, which, but for the UDM with two, had a seat each, would be sufficient for a majority.
But this would require haggling with each party and the inevitable trading of positions in the execu- those who were not essential and save itself the trouble of negotiating with them.
He said the DA’s opening position in talks would be to ask, “what do you want”, but whether a party’s demands could be met would depend on the issues it put on the table.
But while the DA was warming to the idea of a coalition with the EFF, its leader Julius Malema was playing it cool, denying there had been any discussions up to now and saying any deal would have to be about “changing the life of the African child” and giving people the land – a programme unlikely to be palatable to the DA.
Malema said the EFF would be quite happy to remain in opposition as the voters had decided it was not time yet for it to govern.
It would rather abstain from voting in council or have a re-run of elections than be a front for “white arrogance” or “rescue” the ANC.
However, he said the EFF would be open to discussions with any party, saying it would be “childish” to refuse.
The ANC, meanwhile, was licking its wounds and trying to present the outcome as growth in its support levels, based on an increase in the absolute number of those who voted for it to almost 15 million, compared to 8.1 million in 2011.
But this argument ignores the increase in the number of registered voters in the same period, from 23.6 million in 2011 to 26.3 million this year, resulting in the decline in the ANC’s share of the total at national level despite the increase in votes in its favour.
It was badly hurt by the difference in turnout in wards where it is traditionally strongest, compared to turnout in DA strongholds, sometimes amounting to as much as 15 percentage points.
This suggests its deep internal divisions and demoralised base played as much of a role in its poor performance as opposition gains.
But it also bled support to the DA and EFF, even in its own strongholds and will have to reset its relationship with the electorate if it hopes to arrest the decline.