ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD

after a revised 3.2% (3.4%) y/y gain in January and a neardouble digit increase should be expected in March due to the Easter holidays. Takeaway outlets saw a 12.7% y/y surge in February after a 7.7% y/y jump in January. Restaurant income rose 3.8% y/y in February after a 0.5% y/y drop in January.

Catering services income returned to y/y growth in the fourth quarter with a 9.9% y/y rise in December after a 9% y/y increase in November following several months of declines due to the cutback in catering for government. In January, the increase was 8.2% y/y, which was followed by a 11% y/y jump in February.

Steel production fell 3.1% y/y in March to 527 000 tons after dipping 0.9% y/y in February to 491 000 tons, rising 8.1% y/y in January to 577 000 tons and surging 20.9% y/y in December to 630 000 tons. A return to a y/y increase is expected in April.

The final major data release will be the April consumer inflation figures on Wednesday. This is the first release that will include the higher VAT rate and the increased fuel levies. As a result, economists are expecting it to be around 5% from a recent low of 3.8% in

releases

March. Food inflation was the determining factor in 2017 and 2016 with the drought pushing prices up. But food inflation eased to 3.6% y/y in March from 3.9% y/y in February and should remain relatively low in April.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, will tick higher with the VAT hike after rising 4.1% y/y in March from 4.0% y/y in February.

PICTURE: DENIS FARRELL The SA Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee is due to release data next week.