Weekend Argus (Saturday Edition)
More factors at play in voting
Leadership changes impact preferences
EVERY voting year political parties spend a fortune on organising massive rallies to launch their manifestos in a bid to capture the hearts of the electorate.
Politicians punt their manifestos at every given opportunity. However their efforts may do very little.
Professor Yolande Sadie, politics lecturer at the University of Johannesburg (UJ), argues that the South African electorate is not in the culture of reading manifestos. “People don’t read party manifestos since they are merely policy documents and much too long and boring.”
However, she pointed to research showing how politicians were now using social media to market their policies against the backdrop of trending issues in the lead up to the election.
Two weeks ago the ANC held it’s manifesto launch at the Moses Mabhida stadium in Durban where supporters came in their numbers to fill the 85000-seater stadium.
This sparked a debate on whether the party’s show of numbers would translate into votes when the country heads to the polls.
Sadie said a mixed bag of issues including the quality of service delivery, how the party was perceived on issues of corruption and the integrity of party leaders were usually determining factors.
The ANC was still able to attract voters by riding on its struggle credentials, she said, but warned how over the years, the ANC’s handle on voters had been slowly waning. Voters were demanding more, she said.
A recent UJ study, Monitoring the Influence of Socio-Economic Rights Implementation on Voter Preferences in the Run-Up to the 2019 National General Elections, featured about 4000 respondents from various economic and social backgrounds.
The study revealed that the majority of respondents were sharply divided on what they valued more between socio-economic and democratic rights.
“When asked which they consider to be more important: democratic rights or socio-economic well-being, 44.6% said socio-economic well-being, while 42.9%
People don’t read party manifestos since they are merely policy documents
considered democratic rights to be more important,” said Sadie.
The study drew comparisons on voting preferences between participants who received social grants and those who did not.
“Of the respondents who received a grant from the government, 73% said that they would vote ANC, while 27% said that they would vote for an opposition party.
“Of the respondents who did not receive any government grant, 61% said they would vote ANC, while 39% said that they would vote for an opposition party.”
Leila Patel, professor of social development studies at UJ, explained: “We conclude that while voter preferences are still driven by support for the party of liberation, other factors are becoming increasingly important as we move closer to the 2019 national general elections.”
These factors were socio-economic rights protection and implementation, trust in government institutions, trust in the president of the country, issues of governance and the perception of increased corruption.
In 2016 the ANC lost major metros and according to the study, this was because of service delivery failures.
“Service delivery failures have been cited as the reason for loss of confidence in the ruling party from an all-time high of 70% in 2004 to 54% in the 2016 local government elections.”
The study further stated that: “Significant leadership changes occurred in the governing party at the end of 2017, which may also have an impact on voter preferences.
“These factors, coupled with increasing electoral competition, suggest that the 2019 national general election is likely to be a watershed election for democracy in South Africa.”
Yolande Sadie
UJ Professor