How to beat Japan

Our writers believe the Brave Blossoms will wilt in Tokyo

FOR the Boks, beating Japan is not rocket science. It very simply comes down to the South Africans playing to their very apparent strengths while preventing the Brave Blossoms from playing their natural game.

Fortunately for South Africa, the two objectives go hand in hand. In my vision for this game I see wave after wave of powerful Bok ball carriers smashing the Japanese backwards over the advantage line; I see the Bok tight five nudging their opposition back in the set scrums; I see the Springbok line-out mauling the Japanese backwards until the only way they can stop the advance is to infringe, and I believe that the form referee of the tournament, Wayne Barnes, will ping the offenders.

In short, Japan have flourished in this World Cup because the opposition has allowed them to do so. Tomorrow it will be different because the Boks will get on top of them physically. TWO things stand out for me: one, the Boks need to starve Japan of possession and, two, the Boks need to control the tempo of the game and dominate every contact point.

Japan won all four pool games because they outplayed their opponents with the ball. They don’t like to kick, but they do like to run at their opponents, from anywhere. Their handling, at pace, is top-notch, so the Boks need to deny them the chance to run at them, and to do this they must take charge of the set-pieces – which I believe they will – and then put the Japanese scrumhalf Yutuka Nagare under tons of pressure.

If the Boks kick they must do so smartly because it’s a no-no to gift the Japanese free ball.

Finally, the Boks must slow down the game, they must carry the ball hard and for long periods, and they must ask the Japanese to make tons of tackles. The pressure will tell in the end. DURING the pool stages, Japan entertained with their impressive attacking fluidity, their handling and offloads and the overall contributions of their quick, skilful players. But whether their attack is designed to survive the Boks’ line speed is another matter, and it’s going to be a massive factor. The Springboks’ set-piece is also something they should use to create opportunities; it’s one area where I just can’t see the hosts standing a chance. An overall dominant performance by the Bok pack is going to make it a tough afternoon for the Brave Blossoms, but those backs – like Cheslin Kolbe, Makazole Mapimpi and later on Herschel Jantjies – will be crucial in making sure that advantage is converted into points.

The Boks should also aim to produce a full 80-minute performance. If there’s one thing their game against the All Blacks should’ve proved, it’s that a strong start counts for nothing if it’s not sustained. IT was comforting to listen to Handré Pollard’s pre-match talk. There was respect for Japan and for the occasion of a World Cup quarter-final and there was an acknowledgement that all the Springboks needed to advance to the semi-final was to finish with one more point than Japan.

The Springboks have picked a power pack and an even more potent mix of forwards in going with the six forwards and two blacks split recipe.

I believe the Springboks are a 30-point better side than Japan. Given the magnitude of the occasion, the obvious early nerves and the hosts playing in front of a fanatical support base, this could give Japan a 10-point start. Conservatively, I have the Boks to win by 20 points.

They will do this by keeping it simple, asserting their dominance up front, turning this advantage into three-pointers and ultimately the scoreboard pressure will bring tries and a comfortable victory.