Zuma: what’s next for Mr Teflon?
After scraping by in yet another unsuccessful motion of no confidence, President Jacob Zuma now has some thinking to do
EIGHT motions to get rid of him in nine years and still he lives on – little wonder they call President Jacob Zuma the Teflon man. Yet this time things are looking considerably shakier for No 1 – no matter how immune to scrutiny our all-giggling, all-dancing president may appear. He may have survived the motion but more than 30 of his own MPs wanted him out – and that’s a lot.
So what does this mean for Zuma? Is he in serious trouble – or will he live to laugh all the way to the 2019 general elections?
We ask experts to unpack it all.
Was the motion result really a victory?
Zuma was quick to treat it as such, partying long into the night with his MPs. But it was a weak win for the president, political analyst Daniel Silke says.
The numbers – 198 MPs voted against removing him from office, 177 voted for his removal and nine abstained – indicate the tide is turning against Zuma.
“The ANC held solid but what’s changed [since the last no-confidence vote] is that a substantial number of MPs voted against their own party. This indicates there’s a revolt against Zuma from members who aren’t willing to back down,” he explains.
The motion was a win-win for the opposition, according to Professor Richard Calland of the University of Cape Town’s department of public law.
“They may have lost this battle but they feel confident they’ll win the war. After all, it’s clear Zuma is now their greatest electoral asset, with several polls showing that across race and class, trust in him has collapsed since he returned to power for a second term in 2014,” he says.
The motion itself might have been a victory for Zuma, he says, but in the long term it’s likely to be seen as a major defeat for the ANC.
What does this mean for the ANC?
If an election were held today the ruling party would lose, believes Peter Attard Montalto, an emerging market economist with global financial company Nomura.
“The issue for the ANC is that it’s linked Zuma and the party even closer together in the mind of the electorate and 2019 hangs even more in the balance for the ANC.
“The ANC would fall below 50% of the votes if there was an election now. The question is how much a new leader after the December conference can reclaim lost ground to scrape in above 50%.”
Disciplinary action against ANC members who voted against Zuma in the no-confidence motion might also be on the cards, he says.
“There’s much debate over how secret the secret ballot actually was – ANC MPs have some concerns that it wasn’t totally secret so they’ll need to watch their backs.”
The ANC is going to have to tread carefully going forward, Silke says, especially when dealing with the “rogue” MPs who voted against Zuma.
“Will there be a witch-hunt to flush out the renegades? What’s done to these members can be very damaging internally within the party,” he says. If they’re treated harshly, it could unleash further battles within the ANC.
Zuma may have survived, but the ANC has taken yet another hit and this has weakened the party, political analyst Ralph Mathekga believes.
“An impression exists that the ANC was given an opportunity to correct their own mistake in appointing Zuma and they didn’t do that,” he says. Now the general public sees the problem isn’t Zuma, but the party.
“By keeping him on, they’re taking collective responsibility for his shortcomings,” he says.
What next for the opposition?
The Democratic Alliance is looking at new ways to get rid of Zuma and it filed a motion to dissolve parliament two days after the no-confidence vote, calling for early elections. But unlike the no-confidence motion where the opposition was united, the DA is alone in this, with the Economic Freedom Fighters, United Democratic Movement and the Freedom Front Plus speaking out against the motion.
Yet the DA remains resolute. “It’s clear to the nation the ANC is willing to do anything to protect President Jacob Zuma and keep him in power. South Africans need to be given the opportunity to make their voices heard at the polls,” John Steenhuisen, the DA’s chief whip, says.
Silke isn’t sure there’s more that can be done to unseat Zuma through parliamentary means and legal avenues will continue to be explored by the opposition. But they should just wait the ANC out, he adds.
“After the December conference there’ll be a new ANC president and the party will have to consider if it’s feasible having two avenues of power – one for the party and one for the country. It might decide to consolidate and ask him to resign,” he says.
Montalto agrees. “More votes of no confidence are unlikely to be attempted by the opposition now and further moves against Zuma in the national executive committee are also unlikely,” he says.
As such, President Zuma has a clean run until December where he might stand down at the behest of his own side to allow his successor to campaign into the 2019 election, Montalto says.
How does all this affect ordinary South Africans?
Instead of focusing on the core business of parliament, MPs’ time in recent weeks has been taken up by preparing for, campaigning around and talking about the motion of no confidence.
“That time could’ve been dedicated to talking about policy and governance instead,” Mathekga says. “This means the business of the ordinary South African wasn’t given priority in parliament.”
But South Africans shouldn’t stop lobbying for the type of leadership they can respect, Silke says, even when the motions keep failing.
“They need to pressurise their political parties to give them the leadership they promised while campaigning,” he says.
The failure of the vote of no confidence against Zuma will weaken business and consumer confidence and hold private sector investment back, Montalto believes.
The rand seems linked to Zuma’s presidency, he says, and will continue to be volatile as the country slides towards December. South Africa will see weaker growth in the second quarter of the year as “we continue on the downgrade path”.
“As such we maintain our below-consensus forecast of 0,2% for growth for the year.”
How has Zuma been affected by all this – if at all?
Montalto doesn’t believe he’s been fundamentally weakened. “We think this shows his ultimate political strength – being able to turn the ANC’s own processes and collectivism inwards onto itself for his own personal ( factional) advantage, even when the odds are stacked against him,” he says.
Mathekga, however, believes Zuma’s strength is no longer at its peak.
“He’s more of a liability than a leader. He isn’t in a good space and as such, the party isn’t in a good place. Under his watch, the party was almost brought down in parliament. He’s costing the ANC.” S
‘They may have lost this battle but they feel confident they’ll win the war. ’